Blog reader John Coleman in NZ wrote:
“I am currently working on emergency plans for the health system of the West Coast of the South Island. My personal thinking was that the entire population could be cut odd from all land access for many months and it is heartening to see tht his study suggests that there may be one road which could remain open. It follows the Buller Gorge and is the really long way around. URL for more info.
In addition we have recently had a series of presentations from the researchers at GNS and several universities. * * * The full package is about 14MB, so those who want the full details of the video presentations please contact John directly at the location noted below.
We also have video recordings of the talks:
In 2013, Dr Robinson developed a scenario for a South Island Civil Defence exercise based on a major earthquake on the South Island fault and we have found the casualty estimates informative.
While all of this focusses on the South Island fault, the way things are looking in Christchurch, that big fault sould rupture before we have fully recovered from out local ones. I note that the temporary container mall in Christchurch could now be around a lot longer. We do have a fondness for temporary things.
The shaking intensity may be similar, but the duration could be several times longer. No-one has tried to predict the effects of that yet.
For more information about John’s organization, go to this web site: http://www.cdhb.health.nz