1 thought on “Sea Level Rise – new NOAA report

  1. We need to be careful in how we look at this report. The authors essentially set out to determine whether the upper bound(s) on sea level rise posited in earlier work was high enough. They concluded that the upper bound should be shifted up a half meter. Their analysis says very little about what is the most realistic estimate, i.e., an expectation value.

    In other words, this provides a bounding condition for planning. However, based on the best science to date the most realistic value of sea level rise (not considering land subsidence) is 3 mm / yr, or about 10 inches by the end of the century. That equates to ~ 10% of the 2.5 m in this report. Note that sea level rise has been at about this same rate throughout the last 100 years or so.

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