Do Poorer Countries Recover Faster than Wealthier Ones?

 

The debate has been ongoing about which countries more efficiently deal with long-term recovery from disaster. Most recently, an article titled  Christchurch highlights how rich can lag at rebuilding Japan Times FEB 23, 2013, generated a lot of attention and controversy.

I am pleased to feature this reply, which has not been published anywhere else.  Did Bureacracy Delay the Christchurch Recovery? by Ian McLean.  The paper is short (4 pages) so I will not attempt to summarize it.

I think the paper underscores the point that the pace of recovery is not the only factor to consider. In my experience, recovery has at least three essential attributes: efficiency, effectiveness, and equity.  And of course there is a cost factor.

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Mr. McLean is the principal of Ian McLean Consultancy Services, Ltd. in Rotorua, NZ. He was the lead author of the report titled  “Review of the CDEM Response to 22 Feb Christchurch Earthquake,” which was done under contract to the Director of Civil Defence and Emergency Management, NZ. Details about that report and related articles are on the NZ page of this blog.


How Good Land Use Planning Can Aid Recovery

A photo of the San Francisco Planning and Urba...

SPUR

I recommend this new report from SPUR in San Francisco: On Solid Ground; How Good Land Use Planning Can Prepare the Bay Area for a Strong Disaster Recovery; issued February 2013.

This excellent 80 page report was prepared by an eminent task force.  The executive summary and a link to the full report are located at the URL noted above.

You might want to check out the Spur.org website for other documents that may be of interest.

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Thanks to Prof. William Siembieda for bringing this report to my attention.

Japan’s Recovery Agency Not Functioning Well and Slated for Reorganization

The U.S. isn’t the only country not coping well with long-term recovery from a major disaster. Japan is having its problems too. There is no question that effective and efficient recovery is very hard to do. See Reconstruction Agency under reform a year on. Some excerpts from the article:

 Plagued by administrative disorganization, the Reconstruction Agency is revamping itself to accelerate recovery from the March 2011 disasters, ahead of the first anniversary of its launch Sunday. Designed to oversee the rebuilding of areas devastated by the massive earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident, the agency was expected to guide related government agencies.

In reality, however, progress has been slow in housing reconstruction and decontamination of radiation-polluted areas.Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has made postdisaster reconstruction a priority, along with economic revival, plans to improve coordination within the agency to better effect policies. “The agency will be revamped drastically with the vertically divided administration eliminated,” Abe said.

According to a colleague who has visited Japan, Given the scope of spatial area and many small cities the capacity issue is not surprising. There is a real need to support the urban planning function with more than physical planning. The need to put projects in the ground requires more than graphics. It requires collective effort of multiple stakeholders.

One more article on the problems of the Reconstruction Agency. Feb. 7.

Entrepreneurial Approach to Japan’s Disaster Recovery

 

From HS Newswire, October 24, an interesting account of how Japan uses business people to facilitate disaster recovery. Their approach does share some similarities with the U.S. use of reservists and FEMA Corps, but emphasizes business and entrepreneurial skills. Some excerpts:

The 9.0 magnitude earthquake hit off the east coast of Japan in March 2011 killed more than 12,000 people, sent tsunami waves six miles inland, and damaged or completely flattened more than a million buildings; combined with the tsunami and the nuclear meltdown at Fukushima, it was the most economically damaging disaster in world history, costing Japan an estimated $235 billion, according to the World Bank; a Japanese organizations tries a new approach to disaster recovery: entrepreneurship

The 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, tsunami, and reactor meltdown spread havoc and destruction on the east coast of Japan, and more than a year later some areas are still recovering. A major contribution to the recovery has been the Tokyo-based Entrepreneur group called ETIC. Unlike more traditional recovery efforts, the group emphasizes an entrepreneurial approach to recovery.

ETIC was created in 1993 with the entrepreneur internship program. The program has placed 2,000 interns at startup companies and social enterprises in Japan.

Triplepundit reports that ETIC has created the Disaster Recovery Leadership Development Project. The biggest corporations in Japan have combined to send about 200 fellows to the recovery region for from three months to one year in order to help run temporary housing units, rebuild transportation systems,and help companies affected by the disaster recover and start-up again.

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Assessment of Earthquake Response in Christchurch, NZ – new report

 

A new, in-depth report on the response to the major earthquake in Christchurch, NZ is now available. The circumstances and issues noted should be of interest to other countries with seismic risk.

Titled  Review of the Civil Defense Emergency Management Response to the 22 February Christchurch Earthquake, it was produced by Ian McLean Consultancy Services Ltd., under a contract from the Director of Civil Defence and Emergency Management, NZ.

Completed in June 2012 and released to the public on October 4, this 243 report provides a detailed account of the 2011 earthquake event and its impacts, focusing on the response phase. (There is an 8 page Executive Summary in the report.)

The assessment was done by a team of experienced, independent experts: three team members are from N.Z., one from Australia, and one from the U.S. (Disclosure, Claire Rubin is the American member of the team.)

Because I think the issues are important and should be of interest to other countries, I have mounted a new page, named NZ (see top right-hand button on this homepage)  to this blog site to provide additional commentary.

Recovery Issues of Aged Population – Findings from Japan

Disaster drove down Japan’s lifespan along with recovery;

article reprinted from the Economist, August 5, 2012, in the Canadian Chronicle Herald.

 The findings are so significant I am including the full article here. Two issues are worth noting: the stress of a disaster can shorten the lifespan of a victim and the older and younger victims have different priorities and operate on a different time scale re recovery planning.

Many in Japan were taken aback recently by the news that, for the first time since 1985, Japanese women have lost their crown as the world’s longest-living people. Their average life expectancy fell to 85.9 years in 2011, a bit less than a year shorter than that of the women of Hong Kong.

People were even more crestfallen at the news that this was largely caused by the death toll from the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan. It was a reminder of how disproportionately the disaster had hit the elderly in this aging corner of the planet. Of almost 18,800 dead and missing, 56 per cent were older than 65.

Aging is taking its toll on the reconstruction process too. In towns along the coast, officials say that they have encountered a “generation gap” that is hampering their efforts to rebuild. Simply put, older people, aware of their relatively short remaining lifespan, want to restore what they lost as soon as possible. Young families want revitalized communities with more people, jobs and social freedoms.

In miniature, it is a problem faced across the country: An elderly population, richer, more risk-averse and more powerful than the young, is also more resistant to change.

In Onagawa, a fishing port in Miyagi prefecture that lost about one-tenth of its 10,000-strong population in the disaster, the elderly have so far gotten their way, officials say. More than a third of residents were older than 65 at the time of the tsunami, compared with 24 per cent in Japan as a whole.

As local official Toshiaki Yaginuma recounts it, many of the elderly lived in 15 fishing hamlets partly or wholly washed away by the tsunami. Instead of rebuilding them, the local government wanted to merge them into fewer, larger settlements. It dropped the plan, however, because of staunch opposition from the fishermen, mostly older people. They argued that each beach had its own history, culture and tradition, and they were worried that, if they moved, they would lose valuable fishing and oyster-farming licences that, some say, can bring in $100,000 a year.

Their sons and daughters have different priorities. Yaginuma said that, as well as wanting more access to shops, hospitals, jobs and schools, the young wanted the settlements to be merged to give them more chance of finding a spouse and raising a family.

This is a telling factor in a country with one of the world’s lowest birth rates. Whole families are split over the issue, Yaginuma says.  “The elderly tell the young that they’re arrogant to think like that,” he says. “The young say, ‘Father, you are not thinking about our future.’”

Finding compromises on such fraught social issues is key to the rebuilding, which suggests that it will remain painstakingly slow. In the past Japan’s central-government bureaucrats would have run roughshod over those who resisted them. This time, the country’s Reconstruction Agency says that the devastation is too widespread for a one-size-fits-all solution. It therefore has been left to local governments to draw up reconstruction plans, funded from the national budget.

The central government still hopes that rebuilding stricken areas can be a blueprint for revitalization of aging communities elsewhere in Japan. It is allowing innovative places to become “special zones” that are light on regulation and heavy on such new ideas as smart energy grids and high-density living.

The implication is that those who simply want to restore what was lost may not get generous treatment. Yet officials acknowledge that the elderly have a great deal of voting power in Japan and are hard to boss around.

The challenges of demography are even more acute in neighboring Fukushima prefecture, where the tsunami-induced meltdown of a nuclear-power plant has scattered hundreds of thousands of residents. Here the varying outlooks of young and old overlap with different perceptions of the dangers of radiation.

As in Miyagi, experts say that more elderly than young evacuees are in favour of returning to their hometowns and picking up life where they left off. Many pensioners consider low doses of radiation less of an issue than the severed ties with their old communities.

Younger parents, meanwhile, see little hope of things ever getting back to normal. First, they fear that their children are more susceptible to cancer threats from radiation. Even if some of the mess can be cleaned up, they worry, businesses are less likely to return to contaminated areas.

Anticipating Seismic Hot Spots – new book

From the HSWire, June 27. Mega-quake hotspots around the world

The 2010 earthquake in Haiti killed hundreds of thousands and destroyed large sections of the capital, Port au Prince; the clock is ticking on many earthquake faults throughout the world, and a comprehensive new book points to places around the world that could face the fate of Port au Prince

“We are not yet to the point where we can predict earthquakes,” said Yeats, a professor emeritus in Oregon State’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. “What we can do is tell you where some of the most dangerous faults lie – and where those coincide with crowded cities, few building codes, and a lack of social services, you have a time bomb.

“The lesson there is that you never know which one is going to nail you,” Yeats said, “but it pays to be prepared.”

Italy – serious loss of cultural heritage as a result of underestimating risk

Emilia-Romagna

Emilia-Romagna

As was true in Japan, for the Sendai earthquake, uneven attention to seismic risk in a region of a risky country results in irreparable damage from earthquakes. See Quakes Deal Irreparable Blow to an Italian Region’s Cultural Heritage; NYT June 3,

Indeed, Emilia-Romagna was considered a low-risk area for earthquakes. For hundreds of years, buildings were constructed “with a total absence of a seismic culture,” which is why so many, including churches, succumbed, said Gian Michele Calvi, a professor of seismic engineering at the University of Pavia.

Man-made Earthquakes in U.S.

Against fracking 02

Against fracking 02 (Photo credit: Bosc d'Anjou)

Fracking Tied to Unusual Rise in Earthquakes in U.S., according to Bloomberg News, April 12.

A spate of earthquakes across the middle of the U.S. is “almost certainly” man-made, and may be caused by wastewater from oil or gas drilling injected into the ground, U.S. government scientists said in a study.Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey said that for the three decades until 2000, seismic events in the nation’s midsection averaged 21 a year. They jumped to 50 in 2009, 87 in 2010 and 134 in 2011.

Those statistics, included in the abstract of a research paper to be discussed at the Seismological Society of America conference next week in San Diego, will add pressure on an energy industry already confronting more regulation of the process of hydraulic fracturing.