U.S. Readiness for a Catastrophic Event — not too certain

Federal Emergency Management Agency

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I listened to part of the Senate hearing yesterday, details and testimony can be found here. It was not exactly reassuring to hear the recently retired Inspector General of DHS enumerate the problems and issues known for years and complain about the slow pace of change and remediation.  More details about the hearing were provided by GovExec.com, March 18th, in their article titled: Senators question U.S. preparedness in wake of Japan’s crisis.

Members of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on Thursday questioned which federal agency and individual within the federal government would take the lead in responding to a catastrophe like the one gripping Japan.

“Is it really clear who’s responsible for what if, God forbid, we had the kind of multiple catastrophes that Japan is experiencing right now?” the committee’s ranking member, Susan Collins, R-Maine, asked the director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, at a hearing.

There was no clear answer, as FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate said that the response would depend on several factors, such as where the disaster occurred and whether local first responders survived. For example, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission would lead efforts after a disaster at a nuclear-power plant, Fugate said. FEMA, on the other hand, would be responsible for coordinating evacuations around the plant.

Overall, Fugate said, FEMA has made “significant progress” in preparing to deal with a catastrophe, but “we have much work to be done.”

But FEMA does not yet have an adequate system to assess what kind of capabilities exist in states and cities across the country to handle disasters, said William Jenkins, the Government Accountability Office’s director of homeland-security and justice issues.

I realize only a week has gone by since the start of the disasters in Japan, but it would be nice to see some signs of concern and action from Congress and FEMA about dealing with a catastrophic disaster. Yesterday was not one.

Risk Assessment and Communication – both are hard to do well

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As we enter week two since the Sendai disasters started, indicators are abundant that these two key elements of an effective response need work. Once again (as was true after the BP Oil Spill last year) the need for objective, trusted assessments and the ability to communicate with responders, media, and the general public come to the forefront because those needs are not being met. Here are two current reports:

Japan pressed to be more transparent as crisis enters second week. CNNwire, March 18, 2011.

Japanese authorities came under fire Friday from within and abroad over the lack of timely information on the unfolding nuclear situation as they battled for a second week to contain the crisis. People near the embattled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant are increasingly frustrated, not just with the prolonged fight to curb radioactive emissions, but also the lack of immediate information from authorities, a local government official said.

“Evacuees …are feeling anxious since we are not getting the needed information from the government in a timely manner,” said Seiji Sato, a spokesman for the government of Tamura City, about 20 kilometers from the nuclear facility.

The head of the U.N. atomic agency, Yukiya Amano, pressed the Japanese prime minister to open up lines of communication about the crisis during a meeting in Tokyo. Lawmaker: Japan’s government doesn’t lie Nuclear watchdog under fire over Japan.  Prime Minister Naoto Kan vowed to do as much, according to Japan’s Kyodo News, saying he’d push to make more information available to the international community and release more detailed data about the nuclear situation.

U.S. radiation experts try to decipher reports from Japan. USA TODAY, March 17.

The Japanese government’s radiation report for the country’s 47 prefectures Wednesday had a notable omission: Fukushima, ground zero in Japan’s nuclear crisis. Measurements from Ibaraki, just south of Fukushima, were also
blanked out. Radiation experts in the USA say that the lack of information about radioactivity released from the smoldering reactors makes it impossible to gauge the current danger, project how bad a potential meltdown might be or calculate how much fallout might reach the USA.

Conflicting accounts of the radiation levels emerged in Tokyo and on Capitol Hill. Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said Wednesday that the radiation detected at the Fukushima plant had fallen steadily over the past 12 hours. But U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) chief Gregory Jaczko told a House energy subcommittee earlier in the day that radiation levels at the Fukushima plant were “extremely high.” The chief of the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, told reporters he will visit Japan to obtain “firsthand information” about the crisis and prod the Japanese government to provide more.

Given accurate readings, U.S. experts can develop computer models of radiation released from the crippled reactors, factoring in prevailing winds, altitude and rainfall, said Owen Hoffman, a radiation expert from SENES Oak Ridge Inc., a consulting firm that calculated risks from Cold War nuclear tests.

Implications for the U.S. of the Japan Disasters- update

In response to events of the past week in Japan, fresh attention is being  given to the need for effective leadership and the ready determination of  lead responsibilities in the event of a catastrophic event, especially one with major secondary effects.

US Flag flies in Scottsville

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Who Would Be in Charge if it Happened Here?

Congressman Markey’s Letter to President Obama: Who’s In Charge If Nuclear Disaster Hits America? Greenpeace.org, March 13.

Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) raised concerns today that the United States does not have a coordinated plan to deal with a similar nuclear disaster as that which is currently happening in Japan. In a letter sent to President Barack Obama, Rep. Markey, who is the top Democrat on the Natural Resources Committee and a senior member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, pointed out that currently no single federal agency appears to have designated command in the event of a nuclear disaster here on U.S. soil.

“I am concerned that it appears that no agency sees itself as clearly in command of emergency response in a nuclear disaster,” … “In stark contrast to the scenarios contemplated for oil spills and hurricanes, there is no specificity for emergency coordination and command in place for a response to a nuclear disaster.”

The federal government’s nuclear accident response plan — the Nuclear/Radiological Incident Annex to the National Response Plan — says that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) “is responsible for coordinating Federal operations within the United States to prepare for, respond to, and recover from terrorist attacks, major disasters, and other emergencies.” Yet the plan also indicates that, depending on the type of nuclear or radiological incident, the coordinating agency may instead be the Department of Energy, Department of Defense, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), or the U.S. Coast Guard.

Where Would Expert Leadership Come From?

Nuclear Agency’s Assessment Lags. Wall St. Journal, March 17. Some selected quotes:

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s failure to quickly and accurately assess the potential danger posed by Japan’s nuclear disaster is raising questions about the United Nations organization’s ability to respond to such crises.
Teams of nuclear experts from the U.S. and elsewhere rushed to Japan after this past Friday’s earthquake there, but the IAEA is only Thursday sending its director general, Yukiya Amano, with a team. IAEA officials say the agency is doing everything that it can and that it has been frustrated by a lack of cooperation from Japan.
The agency’s inability to quickly dispatch a team of experts has made it almost entirely reliant on the Japanese government for information at a time when much of the world is looking to the IAEA for an impartial analysis of the risks and likely outcome of the nuclear emergency.

Flaws in Japan’s Leadership Deepen Sense of Crisis. NY Times. March 16

Never has postwar Japan needed strong, assertive leadership more — and never has its weak, rudderless system of governing been so clearly exposed or mattered so much.

Wanted: Better Risk Assessment and More Effective Regulation

In the past few days, several commentators have discussed how complex and interconnected life is these days and on the need to do more than let business interests run unbridled.  Here are a few examples of thoughtful commentary:

Robert Reich in the Huff Post, March 15. Safety on the Cheap.

Profit-making corporations have every incentive to underestimate these probabilities and lowball the likely harms. This is why it’s necessary to have such things as government regulators, why regulators must be independent of the industries they regulate, and why regulators need enough resources to enforce the regulations.

The Costly Lessons from the Long Tail of Improbable Disaster, by S. Pearlstein. Wash Post, March 16.

The lesson to be drawn from all this is not that we should roll back the clock and return to a simpler and less interconnected existence. It is, rather, that more attention must be paid to the extra risks that come with all the advantages of modern life. There may be a significant cost involved in preventing low-probability disasters, or having sufficient infrastructure to deal with them when they cannot be prevented. But as we are reminded by this week’s events in Japan, that cost is likely to be less than the cost of ignoring those risks and doing nothing at all.

Harold Meyerson, Wash. Post, March 16, From Japan’s devastation, our Lisbon moment?

What the systemic failures on Wall Street, in the Gulf of Mexico and in Japan should teach us is that the need for active, disinterested governmental regulation is rooted not in any radical impulse, as the American right continually contends, but in a sober, conservative assessment of the human capacity for mistake and self-delusion, not to mention avarice and chicanery. We can underestimate the risks of a particular undertaking, even when we think we have guarded against them. We fall prey to our own sense of infallibility, often as a way to rationalize what is otherwise a risky endeavor. When those risks go bad, the consequences often fall on those who didn’t take those risks themselves, as the millions of Americans who lost their jobs thanks to Wall Street’s follies can attest.

As of March 17, articles are beginning to appear about the problems that the national government of Japan has been having in its effort to regulate the nuclear power industry in their county.  Some articles are only available in full with a subscription to the WSJournal.

Sendai, Japan Disaster – updates on economic and financial aspects

Japan Earthquakes 3-13-2011 11-29-13 AM

Image by Kevin Krejci via Flickr

Right now the dominant news coverage deals with the nuclear and radiation issues that are hindering the response.  Regarding the recovery phase, most of the news reported comes from financial experts. I have not seen any significant interviews or articles that provide insights or analysis from major historic earthquakes and successful recovery from them.  Many dimensions of recovery are not being considered, other than financial. And few media types seem to understand of the complexity or actual duration of the recovery process.  See the “Worth Reading” page on this blog, which is my attempt to highlight some useful documents for consideration.

Discussion of the likely sources of recovery funds, from the NYTimes today. Japan’s Government Likely to Bear Much of the Loss

Apart from an expected $35 billion in insurance claims from last week’s earthquake, the financial losses in Japan will probably fall most heavily on the Japanese government once it tallies the damage from the tsunami and the nuclear disaster.

The extent of insurance coverage is not as great as in the Tokyo area; nor is it as high a ratio as is true in New Zealand.  But the coverage is far greater than that in the U.S.

March 14: The Diva did a brief TV interview on CNBC this morning, where they were interested in the effects on the business and financial communities, as might be expected. (The video clip is now available.) Presently, I am thinking about the upcoming federal National Level Exercise regarding a New Madrid earthquake, planned for May.  To date most of our thinking in the U.S. about recovery has not been broad gauge enough; we should be thinking in terms of events of the size and destructive possibilities of the Tangshan, China (1978), Christchurch, N.Z. (2011), and the current Sendai, Japan events. I plan to provide more details about the first-mentioned in subsequent posts.

March 13:  Disaster recovery has many essential ingredients, two of which are business and financial recovery.  Here is my take on some key business and economic issues/concerns that I have gleaned from secondary sources on the catastrophic events in Japan:

  1. The earthquake, tsunamis, and other cascading events (damage to nuclear power plants) combined resulted in a catastrophic disaster, which probably will be the costliest one Japan has ever experienced. This sequence of major events is unprecedented and quite scary.  Altogether, the compound of events poses the greatest challenge Japan has faced since WWII
  2. The recovery period will begin soon, although completing the damage assessment and cost estimates will take more time than usual.  The recovery process is likely to divert resources away from manufacturing. It no doubt will entail making some major decisions about the future of the country. Plus, it will take decades to accomplish.
  3. Insurance and reinsurance. Earthquake and fire insurance coverage is common for residential and commercial structures, although fewer policies are in place in Sendai than is true in the Tokyo region, which is (was) considered the highest risk. The major reinsurers (Lloyds of London, Munich Re, Swiss Re) expect to make payouts in Japan.  These same companies also provide insurance in New Zealand.
  4. For American business owners and consumers, interruptions in supply chains might occur; e.g., computer parts, chips, cars etc. Sendai is not an industrial hub, like Kobe. But ground transportation and communications have been disrupted in many areas of the main island.
  5. Possible relocation of residents and structures in Sendai and around the failed nuclear power plants.  Similar to the decisions made about downtown Christchurch, N.Z. Already consideration is being given to not rebuilding in place many of the past structures and systems in the most vulnerable seismic areas. Decisions about the power plants remain to be made.

Reuters news service has done an interesting special report, on March 13, titled Japan Quake Unlikely to Shock Economy. The analysis is thoughtful, citing quite a few economists who have studied the economics of disaster recovery. Yet, despite the optimistic sounding title, the article lays out some serious negative considerations re the Japanese economy with respect to the essential requirements for an effective and efficient recovery.

Sendai Earthquake – economic and financial aspects

Earthquake and Tsunami near Sendai, Japan

Image by NASA Goddard Photo and Video via Flickr

One good source for breaking news is the English Version of the online news from the Japan Broadcasting Network.

For basic facts of the quake and seismic history of the area, go to this USGS website. And an amazing amount of descriptive info has been posted in Wikipedia. Another useful site is the MCEER Center at SUNY/Buffalo, which maintains a chronological list of major articles and reports.

Earlier I mentioned Crisis Commons, a crowdsourcing and mapping info site.  Consider the fact that this source and also Wikipedia are done entirely by volunteers.  Great work everyone who helped!!

Apparently the Honshu location was a surprise to Japanese seismic experts; similarly, the Christchurch, N.Z. location was a surprise to experts in that country. As I recall, the Kiwis thought Wellington had the greatest risk.  Clearly, earthquake science is an ongoing learning experience.

Financial Aspects — among the anxious watchers of the outcome of the earthquakes and tsunamis emanating from Japan are the major insurance and reinsurance companies. Some are already involved in payout for the N.Z. quake.  See this financial account from a German newspaper. I am not sure how they make the calculation, but already they have estimated the cost of damage in Japan at $100B. Additional information about the reinsurance concerns is an an article in Business Week today.

Economic Impacts — See Quake Disrupts Key Supply Chains, Wall St. Journal, March 12,

Preparedness — three takes on Japan’s capabilities in this area:

Here’s the truly scary thing about the 8.9-magnitude earthquake off the coast of Honshu Island and its resulting tsunami: Japan is a country that is lauded for doing preparedness right. Japan is a rich, high-tech nation with much rough experience of seismic rumblings: those factors have led it to plan, and plan well, for disaster, with billions spent over the years on developing and deploying technologies to limit the damage from temblors and tsunamis. Those steps almost certainly kept the death count lower than it might otherwise be — especially in comparison with the multitudes lost in recent earthquakes in China and Haiti. Last Friday, however, showed the limits of what even the best preparation can do

Japan is a best case because it has three vital things: wealth, technological skill and sufficiently frequent seismic activity to boost political will to invest against the worst case. The Pacific Northwest has two out of three, which isn’t evidently good enough.

 

NEW: Recovery Website for Christchurch, N.Z. and Sites for Honshu, Japan Earthquake

CrisisCamp Haiti 2010

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The volunteers from Crisis Commons who assisted during the response phase have phased out their effort; now the site now is titled Christchurch Recovery Map.

Sendai/Honshu Earthquake (March 11):

As you might expect, the Crisis Commons folks are up and running with mapping and other services plus a wiki devoted to the Honshu, Japan earthquake and tsunami event.

For fantastic graphics, go this  USGS website, and view the Google maps view of Honshu and environs.

City of New Orleans — still a disaster from a public administration perspective

DamagedSuperdome

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As we all knew shortly after Hurricane Katrina (2005), the lack of local government capacity and capabilities regarding emergency management was one key contributor to the terrible response and recovery efforts after that event.  To be fair, state and federal governments, as well as the Red Cross, also displayed major failures.  Nevertheless, all of those agencies and organizations depend on a functioning local government in order to fulfill their roles and responsibilities efficiently and effectively.

What seems surprising now, more than 5 years later, is that the local government’s capacity is still seriously deficient. Mayor Nagan, who served two terms in office, left this legacy. The new mayor has initiated the review and hopefully will implement needed changes.  See: New Orleans City Hall dysfunction leaves specialist ‘shocked’, March 4, 2011, Times-Picayune.

Calling New Orleans city government the most dysfunctional he’s ever seen, a leading turnaround specialist delivered a report to Mayor Mitch Landrieu this week identifying a long list of problems at City Hall, as well as a 10-point plan on how to right the ship.  Staffing shortages and senseless red tape are among the problems at New Orleans City Hall identified by the consultant.

Since taking office in May, Landrieu has identified many of the problems outlined by consultant David Osborne, including decades-old computer systems, civil service rules that beget mediocrity, senseless red tape and staffing shortages dating to Hurricane Katrina.

Osborne, who has advised dozens of cities on streamlining efforts, said Thursday that New Orleans faces myriad, deep-seated problems, the likes of which he has never encountered. “I was kind of shocked,” said Osborne, who served as a senior adviser to then-Vice President Al Gore’s National Performance Review initiative. “I think they inherited the least competent city government I’d ever seen in this country and the most corrupt — a really tough experience. I just haven’t run into this level of dysfunction before, and I’ve been doing this work for almost 25 years.”

Chief Administrative Officer Andy Kopplin said the administration concurs with the findings and has embraced the remedies advocated by the Massachusetts-based Public Strategies Group.

I cannot imagine any other city vying for that description!

“Bring on the Explanation Age”

Project Management Knowledge Areas

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The Future of the Future; Enough Information Already. This was the heading for an interesting article titled Bring on the Explanation Age that I recently read in the March issue of Knowledge Management World (www.kmworld.com). One quote from the article that I especially liked:

The Explanation Age presents us with a golden opportunity to stop the madness of generating oceans of data with limited access to the reasoning behind the data.

The author goes on to talk about the need to ask “why” more often.

In my work with the Disaster Time Line charts, we feature information that shows cause and effect.  In my view it is essential to get beyond just a recitation of facts and lengthy descriptions, and go on to do the analysis to show why we have the systems and programs in place for emergency management and homeland security.

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Christchurch, NZ – many homes with major damage not to be rebuilt

According to the NZ Herald, March 7, 2011,  a sizable portion of downtown Christchurch buildings that suffered major damage will not be rebuilt.

In a major departure from the usual recovery decisions after an earthquake, national officials in N.Z. have decided that “…parts of Christchurch will have to be abandoned and up to 10,000 homes could be demolished as a result of last month’s earthquake, Prime Minister John Key said today.” Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee previously told NZPA early estimates suggested 100,000 homes could need repairs while 10,000 could have to be rebuilt.

Prime Minister John Key confirmed those numbers this afternoon, and said the Government was working to identify which homes would have to be demolished.

There will be some homes that can not be rebuilt and, as a result of the second earthquake, potentially, some sections and some areas of Christchurch which will need to be abandoned,” Mr Key said.  We will have to present other alternatives for people to live in because the land has been so badly damaged we can’t fix it, certainly not in a reasonable timeframe.

This is not a common outcome after an earthquake in a major urban area, but one that bears watching on the part of public officials in other seismically active areas. If any readers can supply related examples, I would be interested in hearing about them. I did hear from Prof. Rob Olshansky who offered some additional insights into what the land issues might be:

As I read it, it’s not that the land is so unsafe as to be unbuildable. Rather, the ground deformation requires additional preparation (e.g., geotechnical investigation, regrading, possibly drainage measures, possibly import of fill material, and redesign of foundation concepts), that they cannot rebuild quickly and that extra expense would be involved.

Later in the day some additional information about the effect of liquifaction on the damaged buildings in question –today’s The London Daily Mail.

Additional resources include those of the USGS regarding landslides and land failures:  see: landslides.usgs.gov.