A BBC news article on Sept. 21, 2011 cites a World Bank report about the duration of recovery in Japan:

According to the World Bank, Japan may need up to five years to rebuild from the disastrous earthquake and tsunami that has caused up to $235bn (£145bn) of damage, the World Bank said in a report.

It also estimates that 0.5 percentage points will be shaved from the country’s economic growth this year. However, it expects growth to pick up again in the second half of the year. The 11 March earthquake and tsunami, disrupted production networks in the automotive and electronic industries.

“Damage to housing and infrastructure has been unprecedented,” the World Bank said. “Growth should pick up through subsequent quarters as reconstruction efforts, which could last five years, accelerate,” it said. The bank estimates the damage to be between $123bn and $235bn. This is the equivalent of between 2.5% and 4% of the country’s economic output in 2010.

The World Bank stressed that it was too early to accurately assess the cost of the damage, but said it was likely to be greater than the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Potential costs of the disaster
March quake and tsunami  Kobe earthquake 1995

I agree with the comment from Bill Cumming (noted below) that the time estimate seems understated, and that the response is likely to take decades.  I have no ability to estimate costs, but it the duration of the recovery is understated chances are the costs are too.

One more thing:  For those of you who are closely tracking the recovery process in Japan, I have uploaded the full text (43 pp) in English of the JAPAN_basic_guidelines_reconstruction_here. The source is Reconstruction Headquarters in Response to the Great East Japan Earthquake, a special operational unit of the Cabinet Secretariat.

Many thanks to fellow blogger Phil Palin for providing this information.

Image via Wikipedia

Japan’s Way Back; Six months after the nightmare of 3/11, a resilient nation is rebuilding—and taking stock of a new era.  Wall St. Journal, Sept. 10

A Japanese magazine recently declared that, after six decades, sengo Japan had been replaced by saigo Japan—that is, the postwar era had given way to the post-disaster era. Just as the country’s politics, economy and society had been transformed by the trauma and destruction of World War II, so now are its foundations being remade by the calamity of March 11, whose six-month anniversary falls this Sunday, just as Americans mark their own unhappy anniversary.

The comparison to World War II is an exaggeration. As colossal as the quake, tsunami and nuclear accident were, they don’t begin to match the scale of what the country faced in 1945. But a half year after the combined disasters—which have left, at last count, 15,780 confirmed dead and another 4,122 missing—Japan is still wrestling with the disruption and dislocation unleashed that day.

“Seven times down, eight times up,” is a popular Japanese expression for resilience after adversity. It is often symbolized by the round Daruma good-luck doll that bobs up after getting knocked down. On July 8—chosen for the date of 7/8—the Fukushima prefecture city of Koriyama held a Daruma festival to inspire the refugees from the surrounding area.

 

One more article re “civic paralysis” may be of interest.  Recovery is very hard, if not impossible, for some small towns that are devastated.  Sept. 12, 2011.

Related articles

• Japan’s Way Back (online.wsj.com)

Amazing pictures of the massive debris that collected in Japan post disasters.  Too bad the article did not say more about how they did it and where they put it.  The sheer volume of the debris is mindboggling. Sept. 8,2011.

Related articles

• Debris Management – an essential first step to recovery (recoverydiva.com)
• Astonishing Video from Japan Tsunami Recovered (stevebeckow.com)