Some Quick Measures of Disaster Severity and Progress – a bit of humor

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Many professionals have “rules of thumb” that they use as a rough measure.  Here are a couple I know about and I welcome your additions:

(1) This news clip provides some anecdotal information about an indicator the Craig Fugate uses to determine how severe the impact of a disaster is in an affected neighborhood; it is termed the Waffle House index.

(2) Another one is the White Shirt Day index.  I think it was famed researcher Henry Quarantelli who coined this one.  As I understand it, when the key local public officials show up in the office wearing a white dress shirt, rather than whatever shirt they can find in a damaged home or shelter, it is an indication that the recovery period has begun and that things are getting back to normal.

(3) Here is one for the ladies, provided by my Mother’s doctor many years ago.  At the sight of her when she came for her first office visit after being hospitalized, he noted: “Oh, she is wearing earrings.  That’s a good sign that she feels better.”

I am sure there are plenty more out there. Please let me know your favorites.

Disasters and Politics – not a great combo

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This is one of many articles on the topic, since Republican lawmakers are trying to cut back the federal budget after 9 major disasters costing over $1B. each so far this calendar year.

Federal Funding for Disasters

This topic is damn serious, folks. Three takes on the problem:

Washington Post article titled: How will FEMA pay for Hurricane Irene?

With less than $1 billion currently available for federal disaster assistance, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is temporarily suspending payments to rebuild roads, schools and other structures destroyed during spring tornadoes in Joplin, Mo. and southern states in order to pay for damage caused by Hurricane Irene.

FEMA is placing restrictions on paying for longer-term repair, rebuilding and mitigation projects from previous natural disasters in order to ensure the solvency of the federal disaster relief fund, which pays for emergency management costs and public rebuilding projects, the agency said. The decision will impact the spring tornadoes and disasters dating back several years.

The move “prioritizes the immediate, urgent needs of survivors and states when preparing for or responding to a disaster,” said FEMA spokeswoman Rachel Racusen.

The White House is expected to declare similar disasters in other states as soon as today, further sapping money from the relief fund, which currently has about $900 million, below the $1 billion officials prefer to keep on hand.

The shortfall means the Obama administration will soon request supplemental funding from Congress, likely causing another fight over federal spending as a new “supercommittee” prepares to identify trillions of dollars in government spending cuts.
Already House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) has said that any new money for FEMA will be offset by spending cuts elsewhere.

This issue is not new.  About two weeks ago I posted an article about the need to find an alternative means of funding disasters, other than via supplemental appropriations. See my posting on August 10  re the need for an alternative.  Once again that topic comes to the fore, now that Hurricane Irene is tearing up the east coast.  See this article titled Disaster Budget Becomes Political Issue, Aug. 28.

As Hurricane Irene slams into the East Coast, the federal disaster relief agency is dangerously low on cash. And politicians are already bickering about where to get new money.  It’s been a busy year for America’s disaster agency, and that may soon spell disaster for its budget.

So far in 2011, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has responded to  “major disasters” 65 times, among the highest in the agency’s history. The unprecedented demand has stretched the agency and its budget increasingly thin.  Craig Fugate, FEMA’s administrator, told White House reporters in May that the agency’s disaster relief fund was running low, then just above $1 billion. Without an infusion from Congress, he said, relief workers would only address immediate needs, like delivering food and water, instead of less immediate concerns like clearing felled trees and cleaning streets.

But just weeks before the worst of Hurricane Irene began to pelt Washington, D.C. and New York with heavy rain and wind, the agency’s disaster relief fund dropped below $1billion—to $792 million—nearly the lowest the fund has ever been only eight months into the year. As a result, FEMA officials on Saturday implemented what’s known as “immediate needs funding guidance,” which allows the agency to divert funds from long-term repair and rebuilding projects so it can focus on response and recovery efforts from the hurricane.

FEMA spokesperson … said that the agency had the funds to meet the immediate needs of disaster survivors. But, she said, “This strategy prioritizes the immediate, urgent needs of survivors and states when preparing for or responding to a disaster.”

From Forbes magazine on August 30th, this article.

Hurricane Irene — updates

When Will We Ever Learn the Lessons of Hurricanes, by Orin Pilkey, CNN, August 25. Here is a short snippet from the article:

When the storm has passed there will be a wave of sympathy for the many families and businesses that will be affected. In the beach communities, patriotism will prevail, American flags will be unfurled on makeshift flag poles and the dominant attitude will be: “we’re tough and were coming back.” I’ve witnessed this a dozen times. A better attitude is “we’ve learned a lesson, let’s build elsewhere.”

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The National Hurricane Service, the National Weather Service and others are all issuing dire warnings for the eastern seaboard this week.  Here is a chilling article about the vulnerability of the NJ and NY shorelines.

Updates re likely path of Hurricane Irene, on the FEMA website.

In case you have any doubt about how serious this storm may be for the Atlantic region, CNN is now talking about it being a 100 year flooding event.

Dealing with Infrastructure BEFORE the disaster

Earthquake damage - Bridge Street.

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The title of this article in the HuffPost on August 24 is somewhat oblique, but the article does make the key point that our nation’s infrastructure is in bad condition and the stresses of disasters will make matters worse.  See: What Do the Earthquake, Infrastructure and Antiquated Accounting Have to Do With Jobs?

The earthquake yesterday was the largest east coast trembler in 67 years. But earthquakes of moderate intensity are not rare. The U.S. Geological Survey counted an average of 1,300 earthquakes each year that range in magnitude from 5 to 5.9 on the Richter [Sic] Scale. Yesterday’s was on the high end, at 5.8. Earthquakes — even in areas like the East Coast that is the middle of a tectonic plate — happen regularly and should not come as a surprise.

The same is true of floods, hurricanes, tornadoes and huge snow storms. Natural disasters don’t happen every day or every year, but they are definitely going to happen.  And when they do they test our infrastructure. If, as a society, when we let our infrastructure deteriorate — or cut corners to build  things on the cheap — it often turns out that the cost of our neglect is much greater than if we had taken a more responsible, prudent course and built roads, and high rises, and levies and nuclear plants that are designed to survive the natural disasters that
are all but certain to happen some day.

Editor’s Note: Many people do not realize that the Richter Scale is no longer used; the 5.9 magnitude cite is on the Modified Mercalli scale, the one currently used by geologists.

5.8 Magnitude Earthquake hits DC Metro Area – 1:51 pm on August 23rd

This the first time I have experienced and reported an earthquake first hand, even though I have been in the disaster field for more than 30 years. Details are still coming in about the event: epicenter thought to be in VA; magnitude 5.8 event; impacts range from VA to Boston. Also people in OH and MI are said to be affected.

The USGS website has some details.  If you are truly curious about the epicenter’s characteristics and want to see a lot of details about the local geology, I recommend the American Geophysical Union’s blog.

Next up for the eastern seaboard of the U.S. — Hurricane Irene.  The National Hurricane Center and other weather experts are saying this will be a potentially huge storm.  Already estimates suggest it will cause damage in the billions.

 

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New Insider Report on FEMA

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Well, I figured it would not take long for some critics of FEMA and DHS to issue their versions of disaster response history since H. Katrina and since 911 events. This one is by a former FEMA employee, Leo Bosner.   See FEMA and Disaster: A Look at What Worked and What Didn’t From a FEMA Insider: Part One and Part Two

Note that the last two postings in this blog are complimentary to FEMA.  I am trying to be even-handed in selecting news items.  I leave it to the readers to sort out the conflicting views.

 

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Louisiana — Six Years After H. Katrina

FEMA 16076

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Also on the positive side, FEMA’s account of the 6th anniversary after H.Katrina and H. Rita hit LA and neighboring Gulf coast states. See this report on the FEMA website. 

In my view, given the political and economic environments were are in presently, we are not likely to see this amount of federal outlay or time devoted by public officials to post-Katrina recovery repeated any time soon.

I would be interested in hearing other perspectives, from consultants, researchers and others who worked the disasters.

Some Praise for FEMA

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I am always glad to note some positive comments about FEMA, when they happen.  “A Season of Wild Wind and Water,” in Homeland Security Today, Aug. 15.

Amid an unprecedented onslaught of storms and tornadoes, FEMA just may be achieving mission success.  In this season of extensive and devastating disasters, Director Craig Fugate, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), just may have led his agency to again find its “groove”—effectively aiding disaster response and recovery.

Federal, state and local officials from at least a dozen states across the central and southern parts of the country, mostly along the Mississippi River and its tributaries, have worked at full capacity through the spring and early summer to respond to what seems like endless disaster: billions of dollars worth of homes, businesses and public buildings lost, not to mention the deaths of some 527 people as of June 8.

From the summary analysis of the article:

It wasn’t that long ago—five years in fact—that FEMA was the much-maligned actor in the Katrina aftermath, blamed for everything from the personal incompetence of top officials to decisionmaking slowness and logistical disorganization. Knowledgeable observers say that an infusion of confidence and resources from the Obama administration, combined with Fugate’s sage guidance, prepared the agency for an impressive response to the outbreak of devastating storms and flooding this spring.

FEMA gets high marks from disaster experts for inserting field staff into the disaster zones quickly and opening up communication with local and state officials. So many of these tornadoes hit in succession and in multiple states within hours—creating millions, if not billions, of dollars in property destruction upon impact—that FEMA was uniquely challenged with getting resources and people on the ground fast and dealing with different governors and county officials, all with different needs. At the same time, it prepared for and reacted to ongoing flood conditions across at least nine states.

This is not to say that FEMA is “there yet,” said experts. It still lacks the resources and focus to prepare for a more catastrophic event. With ongoing economic fragility and more attention paid to the national debt and fiscal restraint on Capitol Hill, however, it is not clear that the agency will necessarily get its wishlist in terms of additional funding. It may just have to make do with what it has.

But Fugate’s leadership has improved morale and encouraged a proactive culture, so maybe getting its “groove back” is good enough for FEMA right now.

More Details re Response to Japan Disasters

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Some information from high level U.S. envoy about the initial actions for response in Japan; from the L.A. Times.  Former envoy tells of U.S. worries over Japan’s quake response.

“There was nobody in charge,” says Kevin Maher in describing the disarray that Washington saw in March as Naoto Kan’s government tried to deal with the tsunami and nuclear disaster.

Relations between the U.S. and Japan, already strained over the delayed relocation of an American military base on Okinawa, received no help this week after a retired U.S. envoy publicly criticized Tokyo’s initial response to its March nuclear crisis.

Comments by Kevin Maher, a former director of the U.S. State Department’s Japan Office, shed light on Washington’s behind-the-scenes mindset during the early days of the crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Speaking to reporters in Tokyo, Maher said U.S. officials worried over the lack of leadership shown by Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s government after damage from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that led to meltdowns of several reactors at the coastal atomic plant.

At one point, Maher said the Obama administration considered a worse-case scenario of evacuating tens of thousands of U.S. citizens from the Tokyo metropolitan area.

“There was nobody in charge,” Maher said Thursday at a speech at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan. “Nobody in the Japanese political system was willing to say ‘I’m going to take responsibility and make decisions.'”