Japan Earthquake Report

Japan Earthquakes 3-13-2011 11-29-13 AM

Image by Kevin Krejci via Flickr

This Japan Earthquake Report was written by a British private firm.  It is 38 pages.  The subtitle is “A Preliminary Briefing on the Japanese Government’s Disaster Response Management.”

Some of his main points are:
The events in Japan in March 2011, involving an earthquake and subsequent tsunami, fell exactly within the risk profile of Japan’s disaster management programme, and there were no contributing factors to the disaster that couldnot or should not have been predicted and accounted for.
The failures in disaster response management came about through systemic weaknesses that were entirely predictable, and had been identified in previous similar events, including the 1995 Kobe-Hanshin earthquake.
The systemic failures of the Japanese government and disaster management system were not unique to Japan. They reflect almost completely the same weaknesses that were identified in America following Hurricane Katrina and9/11.

Japan’s planning and construction laws have clearly made a difference to the ability of large buildings to survive even major earthquakes, and this can be seen as a major success in their long-term earthquake management policy.
Despite the fact that individual agencies have developed a high-level of expertise and capability (and often have world-class equipment and technology unavailable to other countries, including US), Japan still lacks a unified Disaster Management framework that allows the swift mobilisation of separate agencies under a unified operational command.

There needs to be a clear distinction made between ‘Major Incidents’ and ‘National Disasters’. They require a different class of response, and as one USFEMA commentator noted, it is no use responding to a Class 5 Disaster with Class 1 frameworks.

Failures at the tactical and operational level were reflected in, and in many ways caused by, a lack of leadership at the political level. Disaster management on a national level is a political issue, and responsibility for that needs to be accepted by national political leaders, whether in terms of long-term capability preparation or in the immediate post-incident response.
Despite these failures, there is a clearly-defined development road-map that would allow Japan to use its existing technical, personnel and organisation and lresources to create an appropriate, effective and integrated unified Disaster Management framework.

None of the points above are new or unknown. They reflect almost completely the conclusions reached following the 1995 Kobe-Hanshin earthquake and the Hurricane Katrina….

Recovery Planning Stalls in Japan – some updates

No one sensible ever said recovery planning was easy.  Japan Rebuilding Is Facing Delays.,Wall St. Journal, July 4. Some details about the difficulties in Japan re the massive reconstruction effort needed there:

The head of Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s reconstruction council said it is unlikely that any of the large-scale rebuilding efforts recommended by the panel will be implemented until the end of the year at the earliest, underscoring how the political impasse in Tokyo is stalling the rebuilding of Japan’s devastated northeast region.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Friday, Makoto Iokibe, head of the panel, said the continued political battles in Japan’s parliament will mean postponing a massive reconstruction process already expected to take more than a decade.

As of July 5th, the newly appointed reconstruction minister quit his position.  A new appointee has already been named.

From the Christian Science Monitor on July 7th:  Japan Recovery From Tsunami Stalls.

Rigid bureaucracy, the scope of devastation, and a lack of financing are hindering Japan’s comeback from the March earthquake and subsequent tsunami. Some citizens are taking recovery into their own hands.

Candid Assessment of Japan Disaster

In  Time magazine, June 24. Rebuilding Japan.  A very candid assessment by a Japanese former newspaper editor. Some excerpts are provided below:

The earthquake of March 11, 2011, changed the geography of Japan — literally. Digital maps and GPS devices are likely to deviate by more than 5 m as a result. Beyond this geological shift, aftershocks from the earthquake are reverberating across many dimensions of Japanese life, creating upheaval in our politics, economy, social institutions and foreign relations. In ways many Japanese never before experienced, our national spirit has been shaken.

Throughout Japanese history, seismic disasters have often seemed to mark the dramatic end of an era. The momentous question now is what sort of change the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake will delineate. Japan can no longer afford the delusions of “graceful decline” or “small is beautiful” — notions that appealed to many prior to March 11. Our choice is rebirth or ruin. (See Japan’s history of massive earthquakes.)

Unfathomable losses are the most immediate consequence of the earthquake and tsunami. Some are at least measurable, or will be in the foreseeable future — in particular, the toll in lost lives, vanished communities and destroyed property. But the losses are intangible as well. The compound crisis of earthquake, tsunami and nuclear emergency has shattered Japan’s image as a land of safety and security. Instead of viewing Japan as a haven of immunity from danger and inconvenience, many around the world now perceive the country as fraught with peril and discomfort. This perception is certain to have an effect on foreign investment and the nation’s appeal as a destination for tourists.

Another consequence of the disaster is a crisis of trust. The government has performed inadequately in sharing information with the Japanese public as well as the rest of the world. Unfortunately, Japan’s ineptness in communication and global literacy is a long-standing problem. More fundamental in this regard is the exposure of the too cozy relationship between an elite cadre at Tokyo Electric Power Company and officials at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The lack of transparency and accountability has undermined faith in Japan’s ability to manage risks properly and effectively.

On a more positive note is this article about volunteers who are helping with the cleanup in Japan; from Telegraph (UK), on June 30.

The Messy Reality of Recovery in Japan Becomes Evident

In a rather overstated headline, the Daily Mail (UK) features an article on the messy, long-lasting needs and problems with the recovery process in Japan.  This is hardly a surprise, given the extent of the impacts of their tri-part disaster just a few months ago. The article does bring home the known essential characteristics for recovery planning: recovery needs to be efficient, effective and equitable.

See: Toxic truth about Japan’s ‘miracle’: Post-tsunami harmony is a myth and the reality is startlingly different.

It is an inimitable picture of Japanese order and contentment. Passengers throng Sendai Airport. In the fields and market gardens close by, farmers are tending their crops. In the city, the bullet trains are spitting out businessmen. It is almost impossible to imagine the colossal earthquake that unleashed first a tsunami and then a nuclear nightmare just 100 days ago.

The north-eastern seaboard was devastated. Some 28,000 people are dead or missing. Sixteen towns, 95,000 buildings and 23 railway stations have been destroyed. The town of Minamisanriku has simply vanished. No change: The wrecked port of Onagawa looks as bad today as it did in the days after the tsunami and earthquake

No change: The wrecked port of Onagawa looks as bad today as it did in the days after the tsunami and earthquake

No wonder the recovery, so meticulously documented in the media, has been described as a modern miracle. Today, the ships that balanced on tower blocks have gone. The debris has vanished from whole villages and towns.

It is further proof, we are reminded, that Japan is a society of immeasurable strength. And for this it can thank ‘wa’, or harmony. This is a collective feeling close to a sense of perfection. It ensures everyone knows their place and acts accordingly. Or so the Japanese like to tell themselves – and the outside world.

Yet post-tsunami Japan is far from harmonious. The bullet trains may be running, but in the fishing villages and tiny ports that litter the jagged coastline north of Sendai, thousands are surviving on aid handouts. The emergency cash promised by the government is yet to arrive.

In Japan, Nuclear Plant Problem Was Known before Disaster Hit

There is a lengthy feature article on the front page of  the NYTimes today titled  Culture of Complicity Tied to Stricken Nuclear Plant. Once again, the issue of appropriate and stringent regulation is at the heart of the problem.

Given the fierce insularity of Japan’s nuclear industry, it was perhaps fitting that an outsider exposed the most serious safety cover-up in the history of Japanese nuclear power. It took place at Fukushima Daiichi, the plant that Japan has been struggling to get under control since last month’s earthquake and tsunami.

In 2000, Kei Sugaoka, a Japanese-American nuclear inspector who had done work for General Electric at Daiichi, told Japan’s main nuclear regulator about a cracked steam dryer that he believed was being concealed. If exposed, the revelations could have forced the operator, Tokyo Electric Power, to do what utilities least want to do: undertake costly repairs. What happened next was an example, critics have since said, of the collusive ties that bind the nation’s nuclear power companies, regulators and politicians.

* * * Already, many Japanese and Western experts argue that inconsistent, nonexistent or unenforced regulations played a role in the accident — especially the low seawalls that failed to protect the plant against the tsunami and the decision to place backup diesel generators that power the reactors’ cooling system at ground level, which made them highly susceptible to flooding. [Emphasis added.]

Japan Recovery Likely to Take Decades – 2 articles

Operation Tomodachi [Image 2 of 4]

Image by DVIDSHUB via Flickr

Clearly, the recent cascade of disasters in Japan will have a protracted recovery. According to a CNN article, Japan faces lengthy recovery from Fukushima accident, April 22, 2011.

The worst may have passed in the most serious nuclear accident since Chernobyl, but cleaning up when it’s finally over is likely to take decades and cost Japan an untold fortune.

A six- to nine-month horizon for winding down the crisis, laid out by plant owner Tokyo Electric Power this week, is justthe beginning. Near the end of that timeline, Japan’s government says it will decide when — or whether — the nearly80,000 people who were told to flee their homes in the early days of the disaster can return. Friday marks six weeks since the March 11 magnitude-9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami that triggered the crisis. Some of those who have already spent six weeks in emergency housing … say they don’t expect to return to what was home.

Many of those displaced by the disaster have spent a month living in government shelters — sometimes just gyms — and are running low on money. Tokyo Electric has promised to make a down payment on compensation of 1 million yen (about $12,000) per household, with the intention of sending out checks by late April. Another 66,000 have been told to prepare for evacuations in towns where radiation readings are at levels that couldincrease the long-term risk of cancer for anyone who stays. That will certainly add to what is likely to be a staggering tab for the Japanese government and Tokyo Electric, the country’s largest utility.”We are mobilizing our resources in order to tackle the situation, to relieve the burdens on those people who have evacuated from the area,” Cabinet spokesman Noriyuki Shikata said. “We know that it’s going to cost a quite significant amount. But at this juncture, I don’t think we have come to a specific kind of budget size.”

Another article with the same theme was published by Reuters on April 24, with some details about the preliminary blueprint being used for recovery planning.

Blue-ribbbon Panel Set Up to Guide Recovery Planning in Japan

A new, high-level special panel has been established to guide the recovery process in Japan.  In the U.S., such blue-ribbon panels also have been used effectively, after a disaster. From the Asahi news service: New panel to offer post-quake reconstruction vision, April 13, 2011. The composition of the panel is quite interesting.

The government set up a panel Monday to develop a big-picture national reconstruction plan following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Makoto Iokibe, president of the National Defense Academy of Japan, was named chairman of the panel, which is expected to compile its first package of proposals in June.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan met with Iokibe for about 50 minutes Monday and told him, “We hope that a good blueprint can be presented to us because the public has high expectations.” At a Monday news conference, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said, “It will be important to put together a comprehensive vision that will give hope to the disaster victims and that can be shared by the entire public.” Architect Tadao Ando and Takashi Mikuriya, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo, were chosen as deputy chairmen.

Among the 12 members appointed to the panel are the governors of the three prefectures that suffered the greatest damage–Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima.

Thanks to Phil Palin for calling my attention to this source.