According to the scientists at Colorado State University, the forecast for hurricanes in 2011 is slightly higher than average. As of April, click here to see their prediction for this year.
Regarding estimates of vulnerability and risk, this new study may be of interest. Hurricanes Pose Risk To 1.8 Million Coastal Homes In U.S., a report from CoreLogic, a real estate co.
More than 1.8 million homes along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts are at great risk of being damaged by a hurricane, three times the number located in federally defined flood zones, according to a report released Tuesday. The report by CoreLogic, a private real estate data firm, focused on the potential impact of storm surge, which is the indirect damage from water and flying debris triggered by strong winds. Roughly two-thirds of the homes cited in the report are located outside Federal Emergency Management Agency flood zones.
Storm surge can cause extensive damage when seawater breaks through structures and carries debris with it. That’s what happened in New Orleans in 2005, when storm surge from Hurricane Katrina broke the levee system and flooded most of the city and surrounding parishes. The homes most at risk are concentrated in Virginia Beach, Va., New Orleans, Tampa, Long Island, N.Y., and Miami. The report examined the exposure of a single home to storm surge in 10 U.S. metro areas. It used computerized models, which generated the probability of a hurricane hitting a particular area, residential density rates, elevation, levees and barriers and water depths along those coastal areas.
The report also looked at the damage caused by a storm’s direct impact. Florida and Texas are the states most vulnerable to a direct hit. Corpus Christi, Galveston and Houston and Jacksonville, Miami, Palm Beach and Tampa were cited as facing the greatest risk in those states.
I just got a copy of the full report (32 pp.); I have attached a copy here: 2011 CoreLogic Storm Surge Report