U.K. National Risk Register & U.S. Strategic National Risk Assessment

United Kingdom

Here is a link to the 2012 edition of the UK’s National Risk Register of  Civil Emergencies. Thanks to John Twigg for calling this to my attention.

Although the U.S. has done a national risk assessment, the final document was classified. I did find an unclassified version of the results, on the DHS website. A copy of the 7- page unclassified version of the Strategic National Risk Assessment  (dated Dec. 2011) is posted here.  If anyone knows of additional information in the public domain on this topic, please let me know.

It would be interesting to compare the approaches and results of both studies.

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East Coast Earthquake – one year anniversary

East Coast earthquake created a ‘new normal’. Huff Post, August 23. On the first anniversary of the surprise quake on the east coast there have been many articles about the event in the media today. And some lessons appear to have been learned. An excerpt from the Huff Post article:

Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia are revising their emergency planning documents to include earthquakes. The response of many East Coast residents – many of whom fled high-rise buildings – went counter to the behavior recommended by experts during a quake.

“It’s fair to say that no one thought we’d have an earthquake,” said Christopher Geldart, director of the D.C. Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency. The agency is hoping to educate the public about what to do next time. It is even encouraging participation in a regional earthquake drill this fall.

According to a local news article, it was a very rare event – repeat interval of 2,000 years!

Housing Needs in the Aftermath of Disaster

Housing and Disasters: Thoughts on Hurricane Katrina and Haiti.  From the Brookings Institution.

The article states some well-known facts about housing recovery, but they are worth repeating for those new to the field.  An excerpt:

But the ultimate lessons I took away from the two very different meetings are that: finding housing solutions for those displaced by disasters (either in very rich or in very poor countries) takes a long time. Long after the television cameras have moved on, when people don’t have a secure place to live, the disaster continues. Furthermore, those who seem to be most in need of housing are among the most vulnerable in the communities and are disproportionately renters rather than homeowners.

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Small-Town Recovery Effort – TED talk by 2 young residents of Monson, MA

From a TED Talk, June 2012. Caitria and Morgan O’Neill: How to step up in the face of disaster

I found this link on the blog HomelandSecurityWatch.com, which posted an article titled Community-Powered Recovery.

Entering Monson

Unfortunately, the comments on that site were rather cynical  and frivolous about what these young ladies accomplished.  I suggested that readers dig deeper, because the Monson example is a significant one. Someone write up a full case study, because Monson is a worthwhile example of small town recovery.  Note to researchers: someone could do a  great service by documenting this example.

Governance and Disaster Management – an update

I remain intrigued with governance matters with regard to recovery.  Today I ran across a short (7 page) cogent paper on that topic, issued by the UN’s Knowledge for Recovery Series; the title is Why Governance Issues Are  Important in Recovery?  I recommend the Series site as well as the short paper.

A week or so ago, I provided a link to three interesting papers from the  Australia and New Zealand School of Government, which is supported by several universities, government agencies, and other organizations. I especially liked the paper titled “Governing the Recovery from the Canterbury Earthquake 2010-2011: the debate over Institutional Design” by Rachel Brookie.

I would like to see more research done on governance regarding the U.S. and Canadian systems. I am especially interested in any analyses of the Canadian EM governance system; any suggestions from readers would be appreciated.

Note to graduate students: this topic is wide open for original research!

Fast-Growing Cities Face Growing Hazards/threats

 

Recently there’s been a spate of articles about the growing threats of flooding and  other disasters in populous Asian cities. Today, there is a compelling article by the Council of Foreign Relations titled: Man-Made Cities and Natural Disasters: The Growing Threat. Some excerpts follow:

The world is experiencing the most abrupt shift in human settlements in history. After decades of rural to urban migration, half of all humanity now lives in cities. By 2050, that figure will surge to 75 percent, with the developing world responsible for most of this increase. Mankind’s unprecedented urbanization will create new economic opportunities. But it will also place extraordinary strains on national and municipal authorities struggling to provide the poor inhabitants of these chaotic agglomerations with basic security, sustainable livelihoods, and modern infrastructure.

And when it comes to natural disasters, today’s burgeoning urban centers will increasingly be on the front lines. Statistics on urbanization are staggering. Cities in the developing world are adding five million residents per month—seven thousand each hour, or more than two per second. For perspective, this is the equivalent to adding one city the size of the United Kingdom every year. Between 2010 and 2050, experts predict, Africa’s urban population will triple, while Asia’s will double. The vast majority of newcomers are poor. Today, some 828 million people live in slums, including more than 60 percent of city-dwellers in sub-Saharan Africa (and 43 percent in South-Central Asia). By 2040, the global number of slum-dwellers will climb to two billion—nearly a quarter of humanity—as the world’s shanty-towns, bidonvilles, and favelas add another twenty-five million per year.

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On Drought and EM

About one year ago, I featured an article titled: Catastrophic Drought, by Stephen and Amanda Jimenez.  Well this is the time to reread it, since they clearly were ahead of their time in addressing the topic that has become very real this summer.  I guess you could say this slow onset disaster agent is seeing a slow onset of attention by the emergency management community.

Related is the article on Crop Insurance in Washpost on 8.13

Recovery Issues of Aged Population – Findings from Japan

Disaster drove down Japan’s lifespan along with recovery;

article reprinted from the Economist, August 5, 2012, in the Canadian Chronicle Herald.

 The findings are so significant I am including the full article here. Two issues are worth noting: the stress of a disaster can shorten the lifespan of a victim and the older and younger victims have different priorities and operate on a different time scale re recovery planning.

Many in Japan were taken aback recently by the news that, for the first time since 1985, Japanese women have lost their crown as the world’s longest-living people. Their average life expectancy fell to 85.9 years in 2011, a bit less than a year shorter than that of the women of Hong Kong.

People were even more crestfallen at the news that this was largely caused by the death toll from the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan. It was a reminder of how disproportionately the disaster had hit the elderly in this aging corner of the planet. Of almost 18,800 dead and missing, 56 per cent were older than 65.

Aging is taking its toll on the reconstruction process too. In towns along the coast, officials say that they have encountered a “generation gap” that is hampering their efforts to rebuild. Simply put, older people, aware of their relatively short remaining lifespan, want to restore what they lost as soon as possible. Young families want revitalized communities with more people, jobs and social freedoms.

In miniature, it is a problem faced across the country: An elderly population, richer, more risk-averse and more powerful than the young, is also more resistant to change.

In Onagawa, a fishing port in Miyagi prefecture that lost about one-tenth of its 10,000-strong population in the disaster, the elderly have so far gotten their way, officials say. More than a third of residents were older than 65 at the time of the tsunami, compared with 24 per cent in Japan as a whole.

As local official Toshiaki Yaginuma recounts it, many of the elderly lived in 15 fishing hamlets partly or wholly washed away by the tsunami. Instead of rebuilding them, the local government wanted to merge them into fewer, larger settlements. It dropped the plan, however, because of staunch opposition from the fishermen, mostly older people. They argued that each beach had its own history, culture and tradition, and they were worried that, if they moved, they would lose valuable fishing and oyster-farming licences that, some say, can bring in $100,000 a year.

Their sons and daughters have different priorities. Yaginuma said that, as well as wanting more access to shops, hospitals, jobs and schools, the young wanted the settlements to be merged to give them more chance of finding a spouse and raising a family.

This is a telling factor in a country with one of the world’s lowest birth rates. Whole families are split over the issue, Yaginuma says.  “The elderly tell the young that they’re arrogant to think like that,” he says. “The young say, ‘Father, you are not thinking about our future.’”

Finding compromises on such fraught social issues is key to the rebuilding, which suggests that it will remain painstakingly slow. In the past Japan’s central-government bureaucrats would have run roughshod over those who resisted them. This time, the country’s Reconstruction Agency says that the devastation is too widespread for a one-size-fits-all solution. It therefore has been left to local governments to draw up reconstruction plans, funded from the national budget.

The central government still hopes that rebuilding stricken areas can be a blueprint for revitalization of aging communities elsewhere in Japan. It is allowing innovative places to become “special zones” that are light on regulation and heavy on such new ideas as smart energy grids and high-density living.

The implication is that those who simply want to restore what was lost may not get generous treatment. Yet officials acknowledge that the elderly have a great deal of voting power in Japan and are hard to boss around.

The challenges of demography are even more acute in neighboring Fukushima prefecture, where the tsunami-induced meltdown of a nuclear-power plant has scattered hundreds of thousands of residents. Here the varying outlooks of young and old overlap with different perceptions of the dangers of radiation.

As in Miyagi, experts say that more elderly than young evacuees are in favour of returning to their hometowns and picking up life where they left off. Many pensioners consider low doses of radiation less of an issue than the severed ties with their old communities.

Younger parents, meanwhile, see little hope of things ever getting back to normal. First, they fear that their children are more susceptible to cancer threats from radiation. Even if some of the mess can be cleaned up, they worry, businesses are less likely to return to contaminated areas.