Category Archives: Hurricane

Call for Better Hurricane Prediction

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From the WashPost: Hurricanes are menacing our economy. We have to invest in better prediction.

To protect our communities and our nation’s economy, we must make smart investments that will advance our forecasts. This would provide actionable intelligence for officials making evacuation decisions, utility crews positioning in advance to restore power to affected areas, and businesses safeguarding valuable inventory.

Although the scientific community has been mobilized to confront these challenges, the government in recent years has cut annual spending on its flagship hurricane forecast improvement program from $13 million to less than $5 million. Compared with the costs of Harvey and Irma, this is as though we own a $30,000 car and will not spend more than about 90 cents a year to protect it.

Other countries are outpacing us in weather prediction.

Improved Hurricane Decision Support

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More capable hurricane decision support platform helps emergency managers

Hurricane Matthew was one of the first operational uses of DHS’s S&T HURREVAC-eXtended (HV-X) platform. The HV-X platform integrates forecast and planning data to provide emergency managers decision support tools for use in advance of and during tropical weather. Development began in 2013 and since then, S&T identified the need for a comprehensive hurricane decision platform that encompassed all phases of planning and evacuations. Collaborating with FEMA, S&T worked to streamline the currently available HURREVAC storm tracking and decision platform. The result of this collaboration is HV-X.

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season – Above Normal Activity Predicted

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NOAA predicts active Atlantic hurricane season with 5 to 9 hurricanes. The federal government predicts an unusually active 2017 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, with five to nine hurricanes expected to form.

Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 11 to 17 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the agency announced Thursday. The season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

Of the hurricanes, two to four could be major, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher and rated as Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity. An average season typically spawns six hurricanes and peaks in August and September.

Reducing Damage and Losses from Hurricanes

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Stop Building Where Hurricanes Hit the Hardest . [Note: after the article was published Fugate said: “Most of the article was right, but the Headline was wrong. I never said not to build, but change how we build and removed government subsidies for new construction in coastal high risk areas.”]

Fugate acknowledged his stance can rile a crowd. People do not want to hear they are taking on incredible risk by returning home and rebuilding. Legislators will do everything they can to avoid overhauling codes and raising standards that could result in higher building costs for many.

And the federal government remains the 800-pound gorilla in the room. People live with the comfort that the U.S. government — and, thereby, American taxpayers — will sweep in and help rebuild after a devastating natural disaster, Fugate said.

“I’m not saying people shouldn’t live and develop in coastal communities, but I bet you we’d see a very different type of construction, very different standards being applied, if state and local governments didn’t have you, the taxpayer, bailing them out every time there was a disaster,” Fugate said. “They really have no incentive to change their behavior because you, as a taxpayer, are an enabler.”

Hurricane Evacuation Studies

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Disaster evacuation; Looking for ways to predict response to hurricane evacuation orders

Millions of people will likely be in harm’s way as a new hurricane season unfolds in the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts up to eight hurricanes in the 2016 season, and as many as four major storms with winds of 111 miles per hour or more. What people do – or do not do – to get out of harm’s way is of keen interest to disaster and emergency response officials. Plans and contingencies work best when they are based on reliable predictions.

Expected Increase in Hurricane Damages

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New 38 page report from the Congressional Budget Office: Potential Increases in Hurricane Damage in the United States: Implications for the Federal Budget; June 2, 2016.

How much will hurricane damage increase in coming years because of climate change and coastal development? This report examines the implications for the federal budget and three approaches for decreasing the pressure for federal spending.