A Compelling Article re Giving Greater Attention to Earthquakes

1755 copper engraving showing Lisbon in flames...

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The reasoning in this article is compelling, in my view.  See: The Politics of Earthquakes; Too many countries are playing Russian roulette when it comes to seismic risk. LATimes, July 24, 2011.

Seismic risk mitigation is the greatest urban policy challenge the world confronts today. If you consider that too strong a claim, try to imagine another way in which bad urban policy could kill a million people in 30 seconds. Yet the politics of earthquakes are rarely discussed and, when discussed, widely misunderstood.

Take Japan’s Sendai earthquake on March 11, which released 600 million times the energy of the Hiroshima bomb. The ensuing partial meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclearpower plant prompted international hysteria about nuclear power, but few seemed to realize that a far deadlier threat had been averted. As seismologist Roger Bilham aptlyput it, houses in seismically active zones are the world’s unrecognized weapons of mass destruction — and Japan’s WMD didn’t go off. Its buildings — at least those that weren’t swept away by the accompanying tsunami, a force of nature against which we are still largely helpless — remained standing, and the people inside survived.

That so few buildings collapsed in the earthquake was a human triumph of the first order. But cities around the world seem happy to ignore the earthquake threat — one thatis only growing as the cities themselves get bigger and bigger.

N.Z. Quake Victims Are Impatient with Recovery Process.

Satellite image showing Christchurch and surro...

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It is understandable and predictable that victims of the N.Z. earthquakes are getting impatient with the recovery process. Similar concerns have been expressed in Japan as well, lately.  See this article detailing the N.Z. situation:  New Zealand’s Christchurch still on knees from quakes.

The once-bustling business district here resembles a wasteland. Along the closed, empty streets lie piles of bricks and steel. Handmade signs hang on the fencing that marks off a large stretch of the city center. “Welcome to Limboland,” says one. Another asks, “When is the recovery starting?”

Damaged buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand, remain abandoned. The aftershocks of February’s earthquake have not only caused deaths but also hindered rebuilding efforts.

The magnitude-7.1 earthquake that hit Christchurch 10 months ago did not directly cause a single death. But there have been more than 7,300 aftershocks, including an especially bad one in February that killed 181 people. The repeated shaking has knocked the city, New Zealand’s second largest, to its knees and kept it there, repeatedly frustrating efforts to get the rebuilding started.

 

Hot Weather Information

We're havin' a heat wave...

Image by Elif Ayiter/Alpha Auer/…./ via Flickr

About one-half of the U.S. is in the grip of a huge heat wave. According to CNN, new heat records were set in 55 cities today.

Here’s some information about heat waves, with advice to stay safe.

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The Diva is back

I am back on duty, having attended the Natural Hazards Conference in Broomfield, CO, sponsored by the Univ. of Colorado at Boulder.  For details about the conference and sessions there, go to their conference website.  For those interested in the activities of that center, they have two free information products: a bi-monthly publication called the Hazards Observer and a periodic electronic newsletter.

Re the N.Z. earthquake, even Lloyds of London, a major reinsurance co. worldwide, is shocked at the extent of the damage in Christchurch, N.Z. according to this newsclip on July 19.

Let’s Hear From You

Next week the Diva will be attending the annual Natural Hazards Conference.  During that time she welcomes comments from readers on this new idea:

Under consideration is a mentoring, tutoring, and advisory service, to be led by the Diva and experienced colleagues.  Please write in and share your views on the need and value of such a service to you.

The proposed services would:

  • provide information and resources about disasters and emergency management
  • offer assistance with research and professional writing (e.g., thesis and journal articles)
  • provide guidance on professional development

Let us know if you would be interested in obtaining such assistance, which would be provided on a hourly fee-for service basis.

Recovery Planning Stalls in Japan – some updates

No one sensible ever said recovery planning was easy.  Japan Rebuilding Is Facing Delays.,Wall St. Journal, July 4. Some details about the difficulties in Japan re the massive reconstruction effort needed there:

The head of Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s reconstruction council said it is unlikely that any of the large-scale rebuilding efforts recommended by the panel will be implemented until the end of the year at the earliest, underscoring how the political impasse in Tokyo is stalling the rebuilding of Japan’s devastated northeast region.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Friday, Makoto Iokibe, head of the panel, said the continued political battles in Japan’s parliament will mean postponing a massive reconstruction process already expected to take more than a decade.

As of July 5th, the newly appointed reconstruction minister quit his position.  A new appointee has already been named.

From the Christian Science Monitor on July 7th:  Japan Recovery From Tsunami Stalls.

Rigid bureaucracy, the scope of devastation, and a lack of financing are hindering Japan’s comeback from the March earthquake and subsequent tsunami. Some citizens are taking recovery into their own hands.

Candid Assessment of Japan Disaster

In  Time magazine, June 24. Rebuilding Japan.  A very candid assessment by a Japanese former newspaper editor. Some excerpts are provided below:

The earthquake of March 11, 2011, changed the geography of Japan — literally. Digital maps and GPS devices are likely to deviate by more than 5 m as a result. Beyond this geological shift, aftershocks from the earthquake are reverberating across many dimensions of Japanese life, creating upheaval in our politics, economy, social institutions and foreign relations. In ways many Japanese never before experienced, our national spirit has been shaken.

Throughout Japanese history, seismic disasters have often seemed to mark the dramatic end of an era. The momentous question now is what sort of change the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake will delineate. Japan can no longer afford the delusions of “graceful decline” or “small is beautiful” — notions that appealed to many prior to March 11. Our choice is rebirth or ruin. (See Japan’s history of massive earthquakes.)

Unfathomable losses are the most immediate consequence of the earthquake and tsunami. Some are at least measurable, or will be in the foreseeable future — in particular, the toll in lost lives, vanished communities and destroyed property. But the losses are intangible as well. The compound crisis of earthquake, tsunami and nuclear emergency has shattered Japan’s image as a land of safety and security. Instead of viewing Japan as a haven of immunity from danger and inconvenience, many around the world now perceive the country as fraught with peril and discomfort. This perception is certain to have an effect on foreign investment and the nation’s appeal as a destination for tourists.

Another consequence of the disaster is a crisis of trust. The government has performed inadequately in sharing information with the Japanese public as well as the rest of the world. Unfortunately, Japan’s ineptness in communication and global literacy is a long-standing problem. More fundamental in this regard is the exposure of the too cozy relationship between an elite cadre at Tokyo Electric Power Company and officials at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The lack of transparency and accountability has undermined faith in Japan’s ability to manage risks properly and effectively.

On a more positive note is this article about volunteers who are helping with the cleanup in Japan; from Telegraph (UK), on June 30.

Long-Term Mitigation — EPA report on sea level rise in Hampton Roads VA

Similar to the need to anticipate repetitive riverine flooding is the need to think about sea level rise.  I did not realize that the second most risky place in the U.S. (the first is New Orleans) is the Hampton Roads area of VA.  The Washington Post, June 27, has an article about a recent EPA study on possible mitigation measures for that area. See A New Way of Thinking as Sea Levels Rise.

“…. earlier this month, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency published the first manual on how not to hold it back, arguing that costly seawalls and dikes eventually fail because sea-level rise is unstoppable. The federal Global Change Research Program estimates that the sea level will rise 14 to 17 inches in the next century around Hampton Roads.

The analysis, “Rolling Easements,” published on the EPA’s Web site, hopes “to get people on the path of not expecting to hold back the sea” as the warming climate is expected to melt ice around the globe, EPA researcher James G. Titus said.

Titus said state and local governments should start crafting laws and ordinances to limit development on vulnerable lands and encourage people living there to move inland. Reflecting the scale of the problem, the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission issued a report this month warning that 1 million residents would now be threatened by a Category 4 hurricane.

The EPA report said governments have three options to deal with sea-level rise: They can stay on the well-worn path of building expensive protection and raising streets and buildings. They can beat an organized retreat from the shore, perhaps by offering financial incentives to people and organizations to move inland. Or they can allow people to do whatever they want for their waterfront properties but tell them in no uncertain terms that they are on their own when the waters rise.

The Need for Realism in Recovery Planning

The Red River drainage basin, with the Souris ...

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Proud city will recover is the title of an editorial in the Minot Daily News on June 26.  While I do not want to demean efforts to bolster the spirits of local residents and property owners in Minot, efforts that exhort readers to return may get in the way of individual decision-making to the contrary. Not every victim of a natural disaster may have the time, will, and money to return to a damaged property. Some may not want to return to the neighborhood or even the city after the disaster.  After all,  the Souris River will still be there, and a future flood remains a possibility.

A quote comes to mind here: “Nature to be commanded must be obeyed.” Source: Sir Francis Bacon.

Here is the article with one sentenced highlighted by me:

Swamped. Devastated. Inundated. Evacuated. Flooded.

All those words describe Minot during the past week, as the Souris River swept through the heart of the city. Homes destroyed. Businesses closed or destroyed. Thousands of residents displaced.

The situation went from dire to dangerous in a matter of days. In some cases, the river made dramatic, historic changes in a matter of minutes, swamping areas that were dry one minute, and were soaked the next minute.

The city of Minot will never be the same. It can’t be.

The residents will return, whether it be in days, weeks or months. They will return to destroyed homes and shattered lives. But we have no doubt that they will return. They are, after all, Minoters and North Dakotans.

Residents all along the river fought valiantly, including weeks of backbreaking sandbagging and diking. But in the end, the river simply overwhelmed everyone’s best efforts.

Thanks to fellow blogger, Phil Palen, for pointing out this article.

One more article on the topic of recovery in Minot appeared in the Deseret News ( Salt Lake City) on June 26.  The lack of flood insurance is a major factor in recovery decision making in Minot.