Hurricane Sandy in Perspective – updates

HURRICANE HISTORY:

Council on Foreign Relations, How Likely Was Hurricane Sandy.  Some really chilling scientific research and dire warnings about the likely frequency of future hurricanes with the same path.

“[Scientists are] telling us we shouldn’t be surprised that this 900-mile-wide monster marched up the East Coast this week paralyzing cities and claiming scores of lives…. In a paper published by Nature in February, [Oppenheimer] and three colleagues concluded that the ‘storm of the century’ would become the storm of ‘every twenty years or less.’

Hurricane Sandy in perspective, in HSWired, November 2,2012. Excellent article that provides a wealth of historic and scientific knowledge useful to our current efforts on determining H. Sandy’s place in context of  U.S. disaster experience. Comments from Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. (Univ. of CO).

Hurricane Sandy has left death and destruction in its path, and it broke a few records, but there were worse hurricanes; since 1900, 242 hurricanes have hit the United States; if Sandy causes $20 billion in damage, in 2012 dollars, it would rank as the seventeenth most damaging hurricane or tropical storm out of these 242; the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 tops the list; Hurricane Katrina ranks fourth; from August 1954 through August 1955, the East Coast saw three different storms make landfall — Carol, Hazel, and Diane; each, in 2012, would have caused about twice as much damage as Sandy

FEDERALISM:

Some sensible advice from an experienced disaster researcher at Brookings, Nov. 2.:  Feds, States, Cities — The All of the Above Disaster Response

INFRASTRUCTURE:

Insightful article from a Columbia profession in CNN today. New York’s Neglected Infrastruture Fails.

It should come as no surprise to anyone that New York’s infrastructure wasn’t up to Hurricane Sandy.  What happened in New York was not all that different than what’s

happened in other places hit by freakish weather events — the infrastructure wasn’t robust enough to withstand nature. It is not the first time it’s happened here, and it won’t be the last.

The problems in New York stem from many factors. For a start, infrastructure investment here is no more a priority than it is in other places across the country:

It’s simply not something that voters want badly. When given a choice between investing in schools, health and housing or investing in sewers, tunnels or roads, the

latter will always lose out. And that’s not just the view of the politicians, but also of the constituents who keep them in office.

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PLEASE PATRONIZE OUR SPONSOR – THE DISASTER BOOKSTORE

New Infrastructure Did Well in LA

It is still early to write about the effects of  H. Isaac, but here is one positive story from HLSecurityWire:  As Hurricane Isaac beats on New Orleans, new infrastructure is holding up; August 31,  2012. It is nice to know that a $14B federal  investment was worthwhile.

This week, as Hurricane Isaac was threatening to replicate the physical damage that Katrina inflicted, it has become apparent that $14 billion worth of changes and improvements in infrastructure, planning, and emergency response procedures have given the city of New Orleans and the Gulf states the ability to withstand the worst of the storm.

English: Hurricane Isaac

See also this article on Sept. 2 in the CSM.

One more on Sept. 3.

Beijing Example: How NOT to Do Flood Recovery

Anger over Beijing’s flooding response. Details of recent flooding (CNN, July 26)  indicate that more than 800,00 people were affected. Bad planning for infrastructure construction seems to be the root cause, but the response and recovery apparently are as disastrous as the flood waters. Here is a example noted in the article:

Zhang and her neighbors alike remember a fearful night spent in dark attics or higher ground after carrying the elderly and children out of fast-rising water — all the while unable to reach anyone at the city’s flood control hotline.

One neighbor, Gao Liying, added that she feels even more shaken by the village officials’ response when she told them the flood has ruined almost all her worldly possessions. “They actually said: ‘If your house didn’t collapse and nobody died, then you’re not a victim,'” she said, raising her voice. “I asked: are you still human?”

Reliance on Imports Poses Problems Post-Disaster says new report

Tom Ridge, former Secretary of Homeland Security.

Tom Ridge, former Sec. of DHS

Reliance on imports leaves U.S. vulnerable to disasters, according to a new report.

An increasing reliance on imports, combined with the fraying of the nation’s power grid, highways and rail lines, leaves the United States more vulnerable to the damage of natural disasters and terrorist attacks, according to a report to be released Wednesday by former homeland security secretary Tom Ridge.

The report, which Ridge shared with homeland security officials Tuesday morning, warns that the offshoring of U.S. factories means that rebounding from a catastrophe will be more difficult because so many critical supplies would have to come from overseas

The authors are two former DHS executives. A press release and video are available.

The report raises some interesting points, including where and when will the needed reconstruction materials come come. The report was sponsored by the Alliance for Manufacturing, which suggests domestic manufacturers have an obvious concern about the topic.

Infrastructure and Recovery- Sandia Labs Research

 

A recent posting on HSWire was titled: Disaster recovery- Finding the best ways to protect infrastructure, recover from disasters; 25 June 2012. I have to admit, I am not clear about what the Lab has to offer, but here is a short account and you can go directly to their website for more information.

Researchers at Sandia National Lab bring the quantitative methods they have developed to the analysis of disasters and how best to recover from them; the researchers look at interdependencies among systems and supply chains, the resilience of various systems, how infrastructure systems fail, cascading effects, and how results might differ if a series of disasters hits instead of just one; the Sandia researchers say they can better quantify the results of such resiliency studies by taking a mathematically rigorous approach to objective assessments

Update on Recovery in Christchurch, N.Z.

According to a news report, the city of Christchurch has adopted the Stronger Christchurch Infrastructure Rebuild Plan; December 1, 2011.  For updated versions of the Infrastructure Strategy, go to this website.  For more information about the recovery process, check out this additional site.

See also this article about Christchurch being one of the 9 Cities to Watch in the Future. Dec. 2, 2011.

Dealing with Infrastructure BEFORE the disaster

Earthquake damage - Bridge Street.

Image by martinluff via Flickr

The title of this article in the HuffPost on August 24 is somewhat oblique, but the article does make the key point that our nation’s infrastructure is in bad condition and the stresses of disasters will make matters worse.  See: What Do the Earthquake, Infrastructure and Antiquated Accounting Have to Do With Jobs?

The earthquake yesterday was the largest east coast trembler in 67 years. But earthquakes of moderate intensity are not rare. The U.S. Geological Survey counted an average of 1,300 earthquakes each year that range in magnitude from 5 to 5.9 on the Richter [Sic] Scale. Yesterday’s was on the high end, at 5.8. Earthquakes — even in areas like the East Coast that is the middle of a tectonic plate — happen regularly and should not come as a surprise.

The same is true of floods, hurricanes, tornadoes and huge snow storms. Natural disasters don’t happen every day or every year, but they are definitely going to happen.  And when they do they test our infrastructure. If, as a society, when we let our infrastructure deteriorate — or cut corners to build  things on the cheap — it often turns out that the cost of our neglect is much greater than if we had taken a more responsible, prudent course and built roads, and high rises, and levies and nuclear plants that are designed to survive the natural disasters that
are all but certain to happen some day.

Editor’s Note: Many people do not realize that the Richter Scale is no longer used; the 5.9 magnitude cite is on the Modified Mercalli scale, the one currently used by geologists.