A new, very worthwhile, report  on Risk Assessment from the Government Office of Science (UK) Jan. 5th: Reducing Risks of Future Disasters: Priorities for Decision Makers. From the foreword:

“Science tells us why disasters happen and where many of the risks lie, and for some disasters we can even forecast when they will occur. The aim of this Report has therefore been to review the latest science and evidence, and to take stock of the further improvements that lie ahead. In so doing, it sets out priorities and options for how DRR [disaster risk reduction] can be substantially improved today and into the future.

The key message is that disaster and death are not the inevitable consequence of greater exposure to hazards. It is possible to stabilise disaster impacts, save lives and protect livelihoods. However, achieving this will require a change in culture and a new approach. Everyone with a stake in developing countries needs to play their part in reducing risk. For example, this Report argues that policy makers far beyond the traditional boundaries of development and disaster response need to recognise that they also have a key part to play in DRR, as does the private sector.”

Some past postings on this blog also deal with risk assessment. To find them  use the search function at bottom right of homepage to locate them. For example, see these risk communications docs from Univ. of MD.

And it would be great if there were a U.S. version of this report!

Human Error Triggers Rise in Catastrophe Cost. Article in CFO.com, June 19. The economic losses from natural disasters and other extreme events have dramatically increased in each of the past three decades. But industry and governments still fail to protect against catastrophic risks.

Economic and insured losses against natural disasters, technological accidents, and terrorism have risen every decade since the 1980s, says Munich Re. The international insurer estimates that economic losses from natural catastrophes hit $1.6 trillion in the 2001 to 2011 period. The Japan earthquake of 2011 alone caused an economic loss of $210 billion (along with insured losses of $35 billion to $40 billion).

Why? The escalating costs of disaster are more about flaws in human behavior and risk management than bad luck, say two business-school professors in a recently released paper, “Managing Catastrophic Risk.” Howard C. Kunreuther of the Wharton School for Risk Management and Geoffrey M. Heal, a finance and economics professor at Columbia Business School, say the overarching reason for the high costs of catastrophe is that companies and individuals are “locating in harm’s way while not taking appropriate protective measures.” In particular, they are failing to guard against low-probability, high-consequence events.

A copy of the full paper ( 20 pp.) can be found here.