Be Prepared — Have a Spare City Ready as a Recovery Site!

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From top left: Shinjuku, Tokyo Tower, Rainbow ...

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This is quite an imaginative idea proposed by Japanese officials who are thinking ahead about recovery after a major earthquake in Tokyo.  The UK Daily mail provided this article: Plan B: Japanese government unveils proposal for backup city in case earthquake cripples Tokyo.  A short summary follows:

Concerned about the impact a crippling earthquake could have on Tokyo, the Japanese government has unveiled plans to develop an entire backup city in case.

Snappily called the IRTBBC – or Integrated Resort Tourism, Business and Backup City – the spare city will be built on a 1,236-acre site 300 miles west of the capital Tokyo.

It could be home to 50,000 residents and 200,000 workers and will also feature offices, resorts, casinos and parks – as well as essential government facilities in case of disaster.

Please patronize our sponsor, The Disaster Bookstore.

Critical Assessment of Japan’s Recovery Plans

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This NY Times article lays out the conflicts in recovery plans for Japan. November3, 2011.  The title, Japan Revives a Sea Barrier That Failed to Hold, is rather understated in that the lengthy article covers a wide range of reconstructions plans and aspects. Yet another example of the failure to adhere to scientific and objective risk assessments, I am sad to say.

Some quotes from the article:

After the tsunami and the nuclear meltdowns at Fukushima, some Japanese leaders vowed that the disasters would give birth to a new Japan, the way the end of World War II had done. A creative reconstruction of the northeast, where Japan would showcase its leadership in dealing with a rapidly aging and shrinking society, was supposed to lead the way.

But as details of the government’s reconstruction spending emerge, signs are growing that Japan has yet to move beyond a postwar model that enriched the country but ultimately left it stagnant for the past two decades. As the story of Kamaishi’s breakwater suggests, the kind of cozy ties between government and industry that contributed to the Fukushima nuclear disaster are driving much of the reconstruction and the fight for a share of the $120 billion budget expected to be approved in a few weeks.

Tsunami wall at Tsu-shi, Japan

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The insistence on rebuilding breakwaters and sea walls reflects a recovery plan out of step with the times, critics say, a waste of money that aims to protect an area of rapidly declining population with technology that is a proven failure.

 

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A New Hazard – Marine Debris

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Debris

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As a result of the tsunami in Japan, a huge floating debris field is due to wash up in Hawaii and the west coast states.  Scientists are already are studying the problem and working to head off a marine crisis when the debris makes landfall in 2011.  Some modest federal funding has been secured, but I am sure we will be hearing more about this threat in the coming months. See Inouye Steps Up With Money for Tsunami Debris Cleanup

Christchurch, NZ – quake analyses are yielding some unique results

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Christchurch Earthquake 22/02/11

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In an article titled Sobering alarm for cities on faultline; the Press (NZ), Nov. 2, 2011, describes some unusual geologic conditions and sounds and alarm for cities on faultlines.  In the report, it quotes Erol Kalkan, manager of the United States Geological Survey’s national strong-motion network, said the February earthquake was “remarkable on several counts”.  Some quotes from the report:

“The ground motion was much larger than previously recorded, the high intensity of  shaking was greater than expected, particularly for a moderate-size earthquake, and the liquefaction-induced damage was extensive and severe within the central business district of Christchurch.

“Many urban areas are built over soft sediments and in valleys or over basins, for example the San Francisco Bay area and Los Angeles metropolitan. These are urban areas that sit atop geological features that may exaggerate or amplify ground motion, just as Christchurch experienced.

“The question is how to apply or account for such significant, higher-than-expected ground motions, as seen in Christchurch.”  The Christchurch quake would have a long-lasting and significant impact on engineering practices and provided a huge opportunity to fuel scientific knowledge, Kalkan said.

GNS Science’s John Callan said the quantity and quality of data collected during the quake was “almost unprecedented internationally”. “Analysis of this data is already having a significant impact on seismology worldwide.”

 

 

Risk Assessment – panel discussion of risks and natural hazards

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“Coexisting with Risk from Natural  Hazards” is the title of a National Academy of Sciences Roundtable, held on October 26,2011. And a podcast of the presentations is now available.

At the time of the all-day roundtable on risk assessment this past week, DHS had not yet released its national risk assessment report, which will be the public portion of an existing classified report. I will let you know when that report comes out, but in the meantime readers may be interested in some or all of the talks from that session.

While I was preparing my comments as a panelist, I ran across this article on risk assessment, aimed primarily at business people.  See Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think, in Bloomberg News, Oct. 24, 2011. The article discusses some of the human behavior factors that make risk management so difficult to do.

The author, Dr. Daniel Kahneman, is a professor emeritus in decision science at Princeton

. A few key quotes are:

Most of us view the world as more benign that it really is….  We also tend to exaggerate our ability to forecase the future, which fosters overconfidence.

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Catastrophic Flooding in Bangkok and elsewhere in Thailand

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Bangkok Floods - Minburi area (8)

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According to the latest CNN report, the flooding is affecting about 1/3 of the country.  The extent and the duration are extraordinary. See today’s report in CNN.

An interesting secondary effort is that the manufacturing interruptions in Thailand are causing economic problems for Japan.  Japan’s supply chain is once again affected, this time by a disaster outside of its national boundaries.  See this Wall St. Journal article on Oct. 27.

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On the need for good governance – nationally and globally

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Again a bit off topic, but I was impressed by this personal effort to help the world deal with its problems. In reading the news of the day I came across a reference to the  Nicholas Berggruen Institute – founded by the billionaire who thinks the heart of our current international crises is poor governance.

I am not equipped to speak to the global situation, but emergency management and homeland security in the U.S. would surely benefit from improved governance.

Study of the Role of U.S. Presidents in EM and Disaster Policy, 1950-2009

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For those of you who share my interest in the history of disasters and emergency management in the U.S., I recommend this new journal article: US Presidents and Their Role in Emergency Management and Disaster Policy, 1950-2009, by Naim Kapucu, et al.

This 34 page article is available as a free download, once you login.

NOTE: As you will see from the comment made today by Bill Cumming, the authors did not get all of their dates and facts correct.  Generally I defer to Bill on such matters.

Also, I am working on a second edition of the text Emergency Management; the American Experience, 1900-2010, due out in 2012.  That book will contain carefully fact-checked details on the history of emergency management for the past 110 years.

Comments on the age-old question: “Who’s in Charge in a Catastrophic Disasters”

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Coast Guard Commandant Thad W. Allen, from htt...

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Who Is in Charge of What During Major Catastrophes Still Unanswered . National Defense Magazine, November 2011.

When a natural or manmade disaster strikes the United States, which federal agency is in charge of the response? The answer is all of them and none of them, former Commandant of the Coast Guard retired Adm. Thad Allen suggested recently.

Homeland Security Presidential Directive-5, released in 2003, said that the Department of Homeland Security secretary takes command of a non-defense related catastrophe. A presidential policy directive released in April this year reiterated this.

“Tell that to [Health and Human Services] in a pandemic,” Allen said at the National Defense Industrial Association homeland security conference. Since his retirement in 2010, Allen has emerged as a leading voice in the disaster response community.