Author Archives: recoverydiva

Historical Account of EM in the U.S. Needs Correction

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Remember: All Disasters Are Local, says the FEMA Deputy Administrator; an article in Emergency Management Magazine, Nov. 14, based on Mr. Serino’s talk to IAEM Annual Conference.  I take issue with a couple of points made here:

“FEMA started in 1979. Did we have disasters before 1979?” Serino asked. “It was locals taking care of each other, then the states helping and eventually the federal government.”

The emphasis has gone back to neighbors taking care of one another, and local and state governments utilizing mutual-aid agreements and Emergency Management Assistance Compacts instead of waiting for the federal government.

This brief account of the history of emergency management before FEMA was formed is not accurate.  There were other federal agencies that dealt with disasters before FEMA was created, and the states and military had significant roles.

For a full and accurate account of emergency management development in the U.S.  I can recommend a good book:  Emergency Management; The American Experience, 1900-2005.  And the first 3 people from Mr. Serino’s office to contact me will get a free copy!

FEMA’s New Think Tank — not the way to go [Corrected]

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FEMA has just released details of a new endeavor.  The good news is that FEMA thinks it needs a Think Tank, and the Deputy Director has set one up online.  It relies in part on Twitter, which in my view is useless for most serious conversations though it might be useful for emergency alerts. In my view,   this type of online exchange is not a Think Tank; I  would have called it a forum or an information exchange. In depth thinking needs to be orchestrated differently .

Why am I so negative on this topic? In recent weeks I have been editing some very thoughtful work by noted academics in the field of EM in the U.S., and the number of complicated and intractable problems that FEMA faces is considerable.  The new Think Tank is not likely to get to the fundamental issues, conflicts, and problems.  I am waiting for FEMA to make a try to solve or minimize some of them. I will be glad to provide a list of fundamental issues we have identified.

Crowdsourcing Science – new technique used for radiation measurement in Japan

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While watching Public TV last night, there was a feature about a program called Safecast. According to the Safecast blog site, the effort is “a global sensor network for collecting and sharing radiation measurements to empower people with data about their environments.”

While we have seen other examples of crowdsourcing to gather information, this is the first example of gathering and applying scientific information.  I hope people create some other examples.  See comments from readers who have supplied some examples.#Safecast Probe 0001 Japan Ishinomaki

Related to this article is another one re a new capability for smart phones. From Government Security News, Nov.11: Disaster Preparedness 2011: smart phones enhanced with nanotube hazmat detectors bring a new dimension to preparedness:

What if your cell phone could detect toxic airborne substances like carbon monoxide, chlorine or even chemical warfare agents?

The public would have a new level of personal protection against a range of fairly common airborne chemical-based toxins, as well as against terrorist attacks involving WMDs. And when sensor data is harnessed in an environmental sensing network for first responders and other organizations, it will be the dawn of a new era for disaster preparedness.
this article is another one that I just read:

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Japan Pictures – photos of extraordinary debris, in March and in Nov.

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Some spectacular photos of Japan immediately after the tsunami and recently.

Thanks to Bill Cumming for providing the link.

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Be Prepared — Have a Spare City Ready as a Recovery Site!

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From top left: Shinjuku, Tokyo Tower, Rainbow ...

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This is quite an imaginative idea proposed by Japanese officials who are thinking ahead about recovery after a major earthquake in Tokyo.  The UK Daily mail provided this article: Plan B: Japanese government unveils proposal for backup city in case earthquake cripples Tokyo.  A short summary follows:

Concerned about the impact a crippling earthquake could have on Tokyo, the Japanese government has unveiled plans to develop an entire backup city in case.

Snappily called the IRTBBC – or Integrated Resort Tourism, Business and Backup City – the spare city will be built on a 1,236-acre site 300 miles west of the capital Tokyo.

It could be home to 50,000 residents and 200,000 workers and will also feature offices, resorts, casinos and parks – as well as essential government facilities in case of disaster.

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Critical Assessment of Japan’s Recovery Plans

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This NY Times article lays out the conflicts in recovery plans for Japan. November3, 2011.  The title, Japan Revives a Sea Barrier That Failed to Hold, is rather understated in that the lengthy article covers a wide range of reconstructions plans and aspects. Yet another example of the failure to adhere to scientific and objective risk assessments, I am sad to say.

Some quotes from the article:

After the tsunami and the nuclear meltdowns at Fukushima, some Japanese leaders vowed that the disasters would give birth to a new Japan, the way the end of World War II had done. A creative reconstruction of the northeast, where Japan would showcase its leadership in dealing with a rapidly aging and shrinking society, was supposed to lead the way.

But as details of the government’s reconstruction spending emerge, signs are growing that Japan has yet to move beyond a postwar model that enriched the country but ultimately left it stagnant for the past two decades. As the story of Kamaishi’s breakwater suggests, the kind of cozy ties between government and industry that contributed to the Fukushima nuclear disaster are driving much of the reconstruction and the fight for a share of the $120 billion budget expected to be approved in a few weeks.

Tsunami wall at Tsu-shi, Japan

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The insistence on rebuilding breakwaters and sea walls reflects a recovery plan out of step with the times, critics say, a waste of money that aims to protect an area of rapidly declining population with technology that is a proven failure.

 

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A New Hazard – Marine Debris

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Debris

Image by autowitch via Flickr

As a result of the tsunami in Japan, a huge floating debris field is due to wash up in Hawaii and the west coast states.  Scientists are already are studying the problem and working to head off a marine crisis when the debris makes landfall in 2011.  Some modest federal funding has been secured, but I am sure we will be hearing more about this threat in the coming months. See Inouye Steps Up With Money for Tsunami Debris Cleanup

Christchurch, NZ – quake analyses are yielding some unique results

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Christchurch Earthquake 22/02/11

Image by geoftheref via Flickr

In an article titled Sobering alarm for cities on faultline; the Press (NZ), Nov. 2, 2011, describes some unusual geologic conditions and sounds and alarm for cities on faultlines.  In the report, it quotes Erol Kalkan, manager of the United States Geological Survey’s national strong-motion network, said the February earthquake was “remarkable on several counts”.  Some quotes from the report:

“The ground motion was much larger than previously recorded, the high intensity of  shaking was greater than expected, particularly for a moderate-size earthquake, and the liquefaction-induced damage was extensive and severe within the central business district of Christchurch.

“Many urban areas are built over soft sediments and in valleys or over basins, for example the San Francisco Bay area and Los Angeles metropolitan. These are urban areas that sit atop geological features that may exaggerate or amplify ground motion, just as Christchurch experienced.

“The question is how to apply or account for such significant, higher-than-expected ground motions, as seen in Christchurch.”  The Christchurch quake would have a long-lasting and significant impact on engineering practices and provided a huge opportunity to fuel scientific knowledge, Kalkan said.

GNS Science’s John Callan said the quantity and quality of data collected during the quake was “almost unprecedented internationally”. “Analysis of this data is already having a significant impact on seismology worldwide.”

 

 

Risk Assessment – panel discussion of risks and natural hazards

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The Keck Center of the National Academies loca...

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“Coexisting with Risk from Natural  Hazards” is the title of a National Academy of Sciences Roundtable, held on October 26,2011. And a podcast of the presentations is now available.

At the time of the all-day roundtable on risk assessment this past week, DHS had not yet released its national risk assessment report, which will be the public portion of an existing classified report. I will let you know when that report comes out, but in the meantime readers may be interested in some or all of the talks from that session.

While I was preparing my comments as a panelist, I ran across this article on risk assessment, aimed primarily at business people.  See Bias, Blindness and How We Truly Think, in Bloomberg News, Oct. 24, 2011. The article discusses some of the human behavior factors that make risk management so difficult to do.

The author, Dr. Daniel Kahneman, is a professor emeritus in decision science at Princeton

. A few key quotes are:

Most of us view the world as more benign that it really is….  We also tend to exaggerate our ability to forecase the future, which fosters overconfidence.

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Catastrophic Flooding in Bangkok and elsewhere in Thailand

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Bangkok Floods - Minburi area (8)

Image by Philip Roeland via Flickr

According to the latest CNN report, the flooding is affecting about 1/3 of the country.  The extent and the duration are extraordinary. See today’s report in CNN.

An interesting secondary effort is that the manufacturing interruptions in Thailand are causing economic problems for Japan.  Japan’s supply chain is once again affected, this time by a disaster outside of its national boundaries.  See this Wall St. Journal article on Oct. 27.

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