The Rising Tide of Migration

Presently, we are focused on migration of refugees from war and issues of statelessness. As this piece warns, we soon will be seeing refugees from sea level rise.

Emerging threats- As a rising tide of migration. Two excerpts:

With sea levels on the rise, several island nations are scrambling to stay above water and ensure citizens will have a place to go when the ocean engulfs their homeland. The humanitarian-crisis phase of climate change has officially begun.
In total, climate change may displace up to a quarter-billion people by 2050, according to research cited by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. That means, within our lifetimes, climate change could become a human rights emergency that grinds global governance to a halt. How the global community chooses to address this seemingly inevitable problem will help define international relations for the rest of this century.”

Rising Sea Levels – focus on natural changes

From the Homeland Security New Wire, this article on possible natural changes that might occur: Up to 70 percent of Northeast U.S. coast likely to adapt to rising seas.

Much of the coast from Maine to Virginia is more likely to change than to simply drown in response to rising seas during the next seventy years or so, according to a new study led by the U.S. Geological Survey. The study is based on a new computer model that captures the potential of the Northeast coast to change, driven by geological and biological forces, in ways that will reshape coastal landscapes.

New Tool for Planners re Sea Level Rise

New tool for coastal planners preparing for sea level rise

Scientists have developed a new model to help coastal planners assess the risks of sea level rise. Put to use on a global scale, it estimates that the oceans will rise at least twenty-eight centimeters on average by the end of this century — and as much as 131 cm if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unchecked.

“Before the Sea Rises, Buildings Soar” – Miami Beach

From the WashPost, this article about the cost of climate change: Miami’s climate catch-22: Building waterfront condos to pay for protection against the rising sea. In one of cities most vulnerable to climate change, a high-stakes bet to out-build the sea. Two of my regular readers provided some insightful comments. They follow:

From Don Watson:  Most of the condos of Miami Beach are going up with monies from overseas investors, who think that Miami Beach is a safer place to put their money (rather than in their own countries). Many apartments in the new buildings are not occupied much of the year (but with air conditioning running to control mold).

There are many other situations like this, essentially based on short term view and developer ability to get in and out of an investment (profitably they hope) before the end game. The city sets up the land development game rules to attract players to the table, with house rules to be sure, but not entirely of their making. Nature is the dealer and ultimate collector of debts.

 From Ed Thomas, President of NHMADon is quite correct in saying ” Nature deals the cards and collects the debts.” But this is far from the whole story. When developers and local folk can externalize the costs of errors and poor design and construction to others — like the federal taxpayer, disaster victims/ survivors, especially the most disadvantaged and underrepresented — but then the environment others suffer. The developers reap a windfall of profits and local taxes  — so we have business as usual.

This article really can help us all understand how we need to transform community development so that we do not have the exact externalizations of costs so prevalent now. The US Supreme Court indicated in the Koontz case that the prevention of externalizations of costs was fundamental to proper land use and had long been sustained against constitutional challenge. [ See Lynesy Rae Johnson & Ed Thomas’ article for the Environmental Law Institute available on the NHMA website.

Coastal, and other hazardous location development is a cash cow for many local governments, who in turn influence where and how development takes place. There are lots of  ways to turn around this situation and NHMA is working on several.

 

Steep Rise in Tidal Floods Expected Along the East Coast

From an article in Al Jazeera: Tidal floods: Coming soon to an East Coast city near you. Climate change causing higher sea levels that could soon inundate much of America’s waterfront real estate.

Many major American coastal cities will face a huge surge in the number of tidal floods they experience as sea levels rise due to climate change, a new report has warned.

The study, conducted by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), covered 52 American cities stretching from Portland, Maine, to Freeport, Texas, and predicted a dramatic increase in flood events linked to high tides over the next few decades.

According to the UCS report, over half of the cities surveyed in the study will see triple the amount of tidal floods in the next 15 years than they do at present. In three decades, when sea levels are expected to rise by at least one foot, nine of the locations are projected to see a ten-fold increase to about 240 floods yearly.

The original study is titled Encroaching Tides How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten U.S.East and Gulf Coast Communities over the Next 30 Years. Both the full report (72 pages) and an executive summary are available from this site.

“Living With Water” – new report from ULI/Boston

From the Urban Land Institute, Boston chapter, a new report titled
The Urban Implications of Living With Water; report is 52 pages.

From the Executive Summary:

How does one protect and enhance the value of a real estate asset, community, and infrastructure as the climate changes and sea levels rise?
Building on the climate preparedness work done for the Mayor of Boston’s Green Ribbon Commission, ULI Boston’s“The Urban Implications of Living with Water” charrette was convened as an opportunity to explore resilient design solutionsfor development in the region. The charrette explored how to help land owners, developers, designers, and public officialsact to protect their assets and communities from the risks associated with sea level rise and climate change

Coastal Development and Mitigation News Items

Lots of news this week about efforts to deal with coastal development matters in NY and Boston. Also. an article about CT efforts.

From the Rockefeller Foundation, 6 Winners Announced for Rebuild By Design Competition, for coastal development projects.

From the City of Boston, their local efforts at planning for sea level rise and mitigation. See their Natural Hazard Mitigation website where all of the Technical Studies are listed on the right hand side of the page. Staff at the Boston OEM have attempted to integrate Natural Hazard Mitigation and Climate Adaptation planning because of the city’s location on the Atlantic. The plan was approved by the State and is now pending FEMA review.