Hurricane Matthew – updates

 Selected Clippings:

Oct. 5th: The path of the hurricane is highly unusual. See this article from the Washington Post: Thrown for a Loop; Matthew’s Forecast Track Could rank Among Weirdos in Hurricane History.

Oct.6th: Here are a few articles of special interest about the pending hurricane making landfall in the U.S.:

Oct.7th:

Oct. 8-9

ProPublica is Critical of the Red Cross and the Red Cross Replies

From ProPublica this accusation: Red Cross ‘Failed for 12 Days’ After Historic Louisiana Floods. Documents show local officials were irate over the Red Cross’ poor response to the massive disaster.

On October 4, I received a copy of this response from the Red Cross:

The American Red Cross stands by its response and recovery efforts in Louisiana. We are proud of our thousands of volunteers – from Louisiana, and from across the country – and we are grateful for the collaborative relationship we share with the State of Louisiana and the affected parishes.

In early August, Louisiana experienced a historic, no-notice flooding event where the resulting damage and destruction prompted the largest American Red Cross relief effort since Superstorm Sandy in 2012. For more than six weeks, 4,700 Red Cross workers, the majority of whom are volunteers, responded from each of our 50 states. They and our partners worked tirelessly to provide relief services to those impacted by this disaster. As of September 30, we have served 1.3 million meals and snacks, distributed almost 700,000 relief items, and provided 81,000 overnight stays in shelters—more overnight stays than we provided during Superstorm Sandy.

The Red Cross responded quickly, even as the rainwaters were still falling. From those initial moments, the Red Cross has been committed to alleviating the pain and suffering of those in Louisiana—and we are still on the ground, helping people in the hardest-hit areas to recover. From the very outset, the Red Cross responded in partnership with the Department of Child and Family Services (DCFS), the Governor‘s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP), and the Parish Offices of Emergency Preparedness (OEPs). By 5:00 p.m. on Friday, August 12, the Louisiana Red Cross Region had opened 12 shelters; by the evening of Saturday, August 13, the Red Cross was operating 29 shelters and supporting two others; and by Sunday, August 14, the Red Cross had 46 shelters open. As the number of shelters grew, so did the shelter populations – peaking at 10,510 people on the night of Sunday, August 14 – and all were served by a collaborative team of Red Cross volunteers, DCFS staff members and our partners.

As the response in Louisiana stabilized, the Red Cross joined with the State of LA and parish officials to focus on the management of shelters and the provision of services to their residents. The Red Cross supported the consolidation of the Celtic Studio shelter and the River Center Shelter. We collaborated with DCFS and multiple state agencies to develop the Baton Rouge River Center 2016 Louisiana Floods Shelter Transition Plan. That plan brought needed clarity to our respective roles and responsibilities, and established expectations for service delivery. More importantly, the plan resulted in better service to its thousands of residents and uplifted their experience: hot breakfasts, community engagement (e.g., children met NASA astronauts, were visited by Disney Princesses and were entertained by NBA stars with the New Orleans Pelicans). The successes in crafting this plan and management by the cross-functional team will provide a template for similar shelter transitions in all future disasters.

Our work in Louisiana continues. As we transition from a response phase to a recovery phase, we are working closely every day with federal, state and local agencies to develop tailored transitional housing plans for each of the remaining residents in the last of the shelters. We continue to provide financial assistance to all of those who qualify, and are committed to continuing to meet many of the recovery needs of those most severely affected by this disaster.

Given the size, scope and complexity of this disaster, it is not surprising that the Red Cross and our partners would be confronted by a range of challenges. This circumstance isn’t unique to Louisiana or to the Red Cross: it is the very nature of disasters. After all, one definition of a disaster is where needs outweigh the local resources available to respond. Most people will recognize that sheltering, feeding, providing security, and tending to the mental health and health needs of 10,510 shelter residents is no easy task. Thus, admitting to challenges is acknowledging reality (not failure), and pragmatically inviting collaboration in crafting solutions. Together, the Red Cross and our government and non-government partners took on many challenges and crafted workable solutions that have proven beneficial to those impacted by this disaster.

Notably, the Red Cross provided all of these services at zero cost to the State of Louisiana. Our massive relief operation in Louisiana is anticipated to cost $25 – $30 million. This cost range represents our best estimate at this time and may change upwards or downwards as the situation continues to evolve. This estimate includes the costs of providing food, shelter, blankets, cots, emotional support, health services and relief supplies. It also includes some of the costs that make relief possible, including logistics, staff and technology expenses to support such a significant disaster. An average of 91 cents of every dollar the Red Cross spends is invested in humanitarian services and programs, including disaster relief and recovery. As of September 29, the Red Cross has received approximately $25 million in designated donations and pledges to support Louisiana, and the Red Cross continues to honor donor intent. Any designated funds we raise beyond what are needed for emergency relief will be put to use serving the recovery and disaster preparedness needs of the affected communities in Louisiana.

The Red Cross, as a donor-funded, volunteer relief organization, remains committed and ready to always seek the best outcomes for the communities we proudly live in and serve.

The Diva thanks Jono Anzalone of the Red Cross , who spent time in Louisisana, for a copy of the reply.

Will Earthquake Prediction for San Andreas Fault Prove Valid?

This is big news, since it will be the first time a prediction has been made in the Los Angeles area. See: Risk of big earthquake on San Andreas fault rises after quake swarm at Salton Sea. [Thanks to Pierre Picard for the citation.]

Although the prospect of an earthquake is scary, CA is probably the best prepared state in the nation to deal with earthquakes.  See this CA Earthquake Timeline chart the Diva and others prepared in 2008, which shows the significant mitigation efforts taken.
By the way, if anyone would like to support an updated version of that chart, please let me know.

Weather Trends Will be Costly for Emergency Managers

Damaging, costly extreme-weather winters are becoming more common in U.S.

The simultaneous occurrence of warm winters in the West and cold winters in the East has significantly increased in recent decades. The damaging and costly phenomenon is very likely attributable to human-caused climate change, according to a new study. In the past three years alone the combination of heat-related drought in the West and Arctic conditions in the East have pinched the national economy, costing several billion dollars in insured losses, government aid and lost productivity. When such weather extremes occur at the same time, they threaten to stretch emergency responders’ disaster assistance abilities, strain resources such as interregional transportation, and burden taxpayer-funded disaster relief.

Earthquake Warning System Needed in CA

California ripe for mega earthquake needs early warning system say lawmakers

California is ripe for a mega earthquake and it desperately needs an early warning system, say Members of the US Congress who are urging President Barack Obama to make funds available to make a prototype system that is currently being used at Caltech (California Institute of Technology).

According to Caltech, their system, which would give people those precious seconds to get somewhere safe, could easily be expanded to cover the West Coast if the funds were there.
Many politicians, scientists and members of the public cannot understand why the US Government cannot spend a few million dollars to create a warning system that could save thousands of lives and billions of dollars in potential damage because people were not prepared.

New GAO Report on the Cost of Disaster Assistance

This the second important report to be issued on Sept. 22. See: Federal Disaster Assistance: Federal Departments and Agencies Obligated at Least $277.6 Billion during Fiscal Years 2005 through 2014

There is a one-page of Highlights, and the full report is 185 pages long.

NOTE: The Diva has not yet read through the full report. She welcomes comments from readers.

Extreme Weather Events Have Had Huge Cost

Extreme Weather Disasters Have Cost U.S. Taxpayers Tens of Billions Since 2015.

NOTE: Be sure to download the full report if you want to see the useful data, of events by type and by state, provided.

 A new analysis done by the Center for American Progress shows that extreme weather events—which will become more frequent and severe with climate change—have cost U.S. taxpayers billions of dollars. Between 2005 and 2015, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, provided more than $67 billion to individuals and local governments in response to declared emergencies and major disasters. Communities in Louisiana, New York, Mississippi, New Jersey and Texas received the most FEMA aid during this time period.

“Climate change is causing more and more extreme weather events, putting at risk not only the lives and livelihoods of Americans but also significant taxpayer funds,” said Erin Auel, CAP Research Assistant and co-author of the paper. “As global temperatures continue to climb, these events are going to become more frequent, more powerful, more deadly, and more costly. Taking steps to address climate change and better prepare for the changes that are currently irreversible will save the United States significant amounts of money in the long term and reduce the devastation we have seen from natural disasters in recent years.”

Morale at DHS Up Slightly

Homeland Security Dept. improves morale but still lags behind other agencies

Morale at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is improving slightly but still ranks last among all the large federal agencies, according to an annual survey from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM).

After six straight years of decline, the DHS saw a 3-point increase in employee engagement, up from 53 percent in 2015 to 56 percent this year.

There was just a 1-point increase across the entire U.S. government in that area.